Posts by David Hood
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Random statistic, fresh from the data. 8% of owners of property titles through all NZ have the characters "trust" somewhere in the name. at lot more of this is trusts of various kinds than people with the surname "Trust.."
I'll ballpark the urban Auckland Area sometime when I have time, but this is the percentage of "grey area" when government starts collecting details.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Michael Homer,
p.s. Michael, thanks for the info about the Linz data. I don't think it should be used for too exact time matches- looking in the Closed Access Group at the history of the property titles table, there were around 30000 rows updated on may 30th alone, and about 10000ish rows for all of June. So I suspect the title information gets updated in batches as the information comes through. This means snapshots would need to be over a fairly broad period for comparison purposes.
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Coincidentally, the Reserve Bank Foreign exchange monthly turnover is up about 4 billion over the latest three months I have house prices for compared to the previous 3 months. I need to note that I think the 4 billion in house sales numbers being about the same is a coincidence, as mortgage lending did go up in the period by 1.5 billion.
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Going and looking at the share market, it looks to have been pretty flat in the grand scheme of things this year, in what measure the index is calculated by. Wages have also been pretty flat, Particular since only a few people's wages contribute to buying a particular price, the magic money didn't come from true remarkable wage growth either.
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In the last quarter REINZ reports about an increase of 4 billion dollars in house price sales compared to the previous quarter. The reserve bank reports that the total value of mortgages loaned by banks increased by about 1.5 billion in the same quarter. That is a rather large difference to account for without overseas money. Note: I am purely working with increases here.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Katharine Moody,
I think it is missing the murky world of trusts (and that is something to look out for in whatever figures the government eventually releases form the information it is going to start to collect in October), but I would agree with the general idea that there are a bunch of ways the government could get reasonable data if it really wanted to.
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I think median income is a good measure of people covered by that median (locals) ability to buy houses. This makes it good as an affordability measure. It does not, however, have much to do with a predictor of what prices will be, just if the median people can afford them.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Kalka River,
Where are you getting your evidence for that from, because from what I could find in the public census Chinese nfd and Indian nfd are actually pretty similar?
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OnPoint: My last name sounds Chinese, in reply to chris,
To be honest, I don't want to as I would feel icky trying, even more so for succeeding, but there are a few thousand people around China who probably feel they owe me a favour and might fill me in on internal subtleties of ethnicity.
It is something that can appear at multiple levels though- we would all understand a few the complexities around "I am a Texan first, then an American" vs. "I am a hispanic-american living in Texas", from the point of view of the analysis that kicked the whole thing off, it doesn't really matter too much as a Texan-first can be treated as an American for the purposes of the analysis.
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Speaker: Identification strategy: Now…, in reply to BenWilson,
But I wouldn’t count that as a bubble popping.
The way I look at it, pretty much every country in the world went into a bubble in the early 2000s, Australia and New Zealand didn't really come down like other countries did. One could argue at length about reasons (I think that Australasia is pretty unique in the way it handles negative gearing contributes) but to me the nett result is (if it is being governed by things internal to the economy) a regional bubble on top of a national bubble. If it is not being governed by internals, then no-one really knows to call it a bubble or not, because there is no real information about what is going on.