Posts by David Hood
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Polity: A week on from the housing controversy, in reply to chris,
Rates of Home Ownership
Chris, what country is that graph for (and why does it stop almost a decade ago)?
The New Zealand data, from http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/DwellingHouseholdEstimates_HOTPJun15qtr.aspx looks like this
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I would note that even if Russell is interested in a walking through the numbers post, my things I am doing with my evenings is kinda full until Sunday. Which is a long time in internet disagreement years.
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For those who have trouble grasping what 60 trillion means, here is a graph of typical NZ monthly house sales (about 5 billion at the moment, on left) compared to 60 trillion (on right)
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OnPoint: Don't put words in our mouths, Rob, in reply to TracyMac,
End of financial year in China? Exchange rate? Spring? Chinese New Year? I saw that as example of tossing out possible variables rather than an actual opinion that it DOES vary seasonally (correction welcome!)
I'll amend what I said to ask "seasonal factors about name frequency that affect the analysis under discussion" because while I freely admit I may be missing something, I'm not seeing how those kind of seasonal factors affect the analysis, as I hadn't seen anyone generalising the Barfoots data to the whole year.
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OnPoint: Don't put words in our mouths, Rob, in reply to Russell Brown,
I was reading a really good article the other day by an Iran blogger who had been in jail for many years. When the Iran authorities put him away he was at the forefront of a whole set of blogs engaged in vigorous debate about issues. When he came out it had all faded away replaced by social media likes.
https://medium.com/matter/the-web-we-have-to-save-2eb1fe15a426
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Polity: A week on from the housing controversy, in reply to SHG,
What if I have a Chinese-sounding name? Did I just screw up the stats somehow?
One person cannot screw up aggregate statistics, pretty much by definition.
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Polity: A week on from the housing controversy, in reply to chris,
We’re not currently experiencing a nationwide jump like 02-03, are we?
I don't have figures on wages handy, but if you take total nationwide household disposable income from the reserve bank, and divide by the stats nz numbers of households, average household income peaked in Quarter 2 2013. So no.
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OnPoint: Don't put words in our mouths, Rob, in reply to Keith Ng,
Keith, could you elaborate on what you see as the seasonal effects on name frequency?
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22.5% of properties have "limited" owners, given there are about 1.8 million private dwellings in the census and 2.15 million property records, there are about 16% of properties that are not houses, so even if limited was all the non-houses it is still nearly as many houses as the trust on top of that, so yes "being a company" could also very much obscure the governments record keeping of the market.
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William, it hasn't been discussed here, but this is the reason I have focused on increases- If a house changes hands one person gets money and one person pays money. The person getting the money often pays off the mortgage and has some more beside, the person paying the money often needs to get a mortgage. But in the long term, it balances out in terms of total amounts of mortgages and house value if there is no extra money coming into housing (becoming mortgages were being created as well as destroyed). And this was the pattern from 2001 back to as early as I could find numbers for (early 80s for good numbers, but the trend seems much the same with more limited earlier numbers). From the early 2000s the amount of money being spent on increasing house prices is not being payed for- either from selling old houses, selling other asset classes, or loaning more from banks.
Pre-bubble homeowners may individually do rather well when they sell their houses, but someone needs to buy the house, and that person (if they are part of the New Zealand Economy) needs to get the money to pay for the house from somewhere. It isn't coming from other household assets, it isn't coming from wage increases, and while household mortgage borrowing has increased, it has not increased to match the amount that house prices have gone up by (it looks more like it is being dragged along).
