Hard News: To be expected
163 Responses
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bmk, in reply to
Looking far too likely. Wouldn't last 3 years, but who needs any more pain?
This is why I think if Labour won't play nice with the Greens they need to consider going with National. A National-Greens government would be far better for the country than a National-NZF govt. I think National would have trouble selling it to its members but for them it would make political sense - if they govern with the Greens moderating them they could likely win even another term; a coalition with NZF is basically conceding the next election and probably beyond that. Governments that ally with Winston pay for a long time afterwards.
Greens members wouldn't be happy propping up a National government. But the Maori party managed it. And I imagine their members would understand that if it's a choice between National-NZF and National-Greens then it's undoubtedly in the country's best interest to grit their teeth and do it.
Of course I would prefer a Labour-Greens government but I can't see it. I think Labour is planning to try and form an alliance with NZF and obtain confidence and supply from the Greens for a few tokens. Instead they could have allied with the Greens and aim to get 48% between them - say Labour 36% and Greens 12% or something similar. This should be easily achievable if they present a united front and offer a clear, vision and plan for the country. Instead though they once again chose the path of mediocrity.
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Sacha, in reply to
Greens members wouldn't be happy propping up a National government. But the Maori party managed it.
Greens members actually get to decide. Can't see it.
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Josie Pagani reckons Labour have done exactly the right thing. Now who finds that reassuring. and why?
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So does Rob Salmond, for that matter. As far as I can tell no Labour linked figures have come out in support of the idea, which, well, is probably the most unanimous they've been on a strategic matter in ten years.
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Here's an overview of how social democratic/green/anti-market populist party coalitions have worked out from an international perspective (an excerpt from a forthcoming Gaynz.Com article on the issue):
I must also admit that frankly, I find remarks from some political commentators that a Labour/Green coalition would be unstable or unworkable either woefully ignorant or highly selective in terms of their awareness of overseas centre-left social democratic/green coalitions that have worked well. In Germany, Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder led a successful and effective Social Democrat/Green coalition (1998-2005) for two Bundestag terms. In Finland, Social Democrat Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen's government included Cabinet minister representation from both the Green League and Finnish People's Party (akin to New Zealand First), so it might be interesting to focus on how that worked (1995-2002). Iceland saw (out lesbian) Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdasdottir lead a 'red/green' coalition in power for four years (2009-2013). There are therefore ample examples of functional and stable social democratic/green coalitions in place within Western Europe should anyone wish to consult them for precedents. In Canada, the centrist Liberal Party and Green Party of Canada also have an informal 'red/green' relationship in the House of Commons. I would suggest that instead of unsubstantiated and subjective opinion, television news and current affairs programmes research these prior instances, as indeed should Labour and the Greens themselves. Germany, Finland and Iceland suggest that a red/green coalition is stable and workable.What about 'traffic light coalitions' that might conceivably include Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First? These have existed overseas. In particularly, the Czech Republic may offer some interesting insights into how this might unfold. Rather like New Zealand First, the Czech Peoples Party is predominantly targeted at elderly voters and its political existence is marginal, depending on whether or not it is acting as a protest vote or taking advantage of the cyclical weakness of one of the major Czech political parties. However, in Denmark, the Danish Peoples Party has aligned itself with the centre-right Conservatives and Liberals in government over the last decade, which might hearten New Zealand First (and National?), or not. Similarly, in 2007, the Polish Peoples Party formed a coalition with the centre-right Civic Platform, the major winner in that year's national election. However, again, in Slovakia, its Peoples Party formed a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (2006-2010). Thus, if Winston Peters chose to play a more constructive role in current New Zealand electoral politics, he would have precedents on both sides of his prospective balancing act. The Czech Republic and Slovakia offer one set of examples, while Denmark and Poland offer the other option. However, the Czech Republic seems to be the only example of a 'traffic light' coalition arrangement. Winston could go either way, judging from the behaviour of his counterparts and closest political equivalents elsewhere.
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Oh, and here are some references for consultation:
Charles Lees: The Red/Green Coalition in Germany: Politics, Personalities and Power: Manchester: Palgrave: 2000.
Werner Reutter: Germany on the Road to Normalcy: Politics and Policies of the Red/Green Federal Government: 1998-2002 Manchester: Palgrave: 2004
Franko Zelko and Caroline Brinkman: Green Parties: Reflections on the First Three Decades: Washington DC: Heinrich Boll Foundation: 2006.
Elizabeth Bomberg: Green Parties and Politics in the European Community: London: Routledge: 1998.
Tad Shull: Redefining Red and Green: Ideology and Strategy in European Politics: Albany: State University of New York Press: 1999
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
What about ‘traffic light coalitions’ that might conceivably include Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First?
In Bryce Edwards' live chat with Winston yesterday, Winston said what he felt about the Greens and it wasn't bad .
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BenWilson, in reply to
Given the view that it’s apparently an absolute no-brainer, I’m trying to find someone who has actually been saying so all along. Still looking.
Presumably you're talking about major bloggers rather than commentators, but I said it month ago. But saying it "all along" wouldn't be that rational, if you mean for years. The polls could move heaps by then, and the whole predication of the arrangement could change.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I mean, there was no way Labour was ever going to buy the “let’s have a formal pre-election alliance” deal on offer
How would you know for sure until you made the offer? It's worth a try.
to act as if the rejection is a grand insult is, frankly, precious.
It would be, if that's what's happening. I don't see it.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I think the Greens should initiate talks with National at least to prove to Labour they can’t be taken for granted.
I don't think they can, given their positioning for quite some time as going with Labour. And I don't think the membership would go with it. But...
tbh I think I may well prefer a National-Green govt. than a Labour-NZF one – especially the way Labour have been operating.
I almost feel this way too. The pressure NZF exerts is mostly toward bigotry. It is at least worth noting that National + Greens would be an outright win with high certainty, right now. But what such a government would look like is hard to say. If the Greens could wring core concessions out, it could look like a big tactical victory for them. Say "no offshore oil drilling", "no more asset sales", "stricter rules for waterway pollution". But I'd say that both parties would be punished at the next election, big time.
Furthermore, the Greens have at least positioned themselves as the principled, non-tricky party, a major distinction from NZF. I think they would want to stick with that. And I highly doubt National would seriously entertain such a coalition, unless Peters was asking too much. But in that case, and again worth noting for the record, they might find themselves more in concord with Labour than the Greens, and a Grand Coalition would win the election with near certainty, if it could be arranged.
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BenWilson, in reply to
A National-Greens government would be far better for the country than a National-NZF govt.
That's a big call. It might be better during that term, but my feeling is that it would implode by the next election, punishing both parties severely. In National's case, that would be a big hooray, but the destruction of the Green Party is probably not worth the concessions they might wring out in one term.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Excellent comment, Craig.
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Moz,
Here's an interesting piece from Geoff Gallop about the Labor collapse in WA recently.
the Australian Labor Party is a good case study in this politics of avoidance. Its membership base has all but collapsed, its primary vote is at a historic low and its constitution is corporatist and constraining.
The ALP is, however, still a nationally important organisation with a base in civil society and our political institutions, local, state and federal. This leads many of its leaders and managers – inside and outside parliament – to think that the crisis is part of the normal cycle of politics and good times will return.
As far as NZ goes, I find it quite easy to see The Greens proposal as them just being straightforward and honest and seeing what Labour say. Which seems to me, as a Green supporter, to be quite a natural thing to do. The question is who stood to gain from leaking that proposal, and I can't see the Greens being that party. But maybe this is a double bluff by the greens to cement Labour's reputation as tricky.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
That's a big call. It might be better during that term, but my feeling is that it would implode by the next election, punishing both parties severely. In National's case, that would be a big hooray, but the destruction of the Green Party is probably not worth the concessions they might wring out in one term.
The 1996-99 parliamentary term is one such cautionary tale. I remember when Winston magnetised much of the anti-Ruthenasia vote - with such campaigns as that full-page newspaper advert with NZ as a jigsaw puzzle and the caption, "National's policy on NZ: Give it away." - only to alienate a lot of voters when he ended up siding with the party he strongly attacked in the 1996 election. It all went further pear-shaped from that point - Jenny Shipley stealing Bolger's seat, Winston getting out of the coalition, the waka-jumpers... you name it.
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WH,
That's a great interview with Winston Peters.
He's aged a bit since the 2011 version, although some of the themes are the same. The exchange at 9:45 onwards ("let the devil take the hindmost", etc) is fascinating.
Peters says that 32 of 38 National MPs approached him to challenge Jim Bolger for the National leadership in 1988 - back when he was polling 29% for preferred PM - and that he turned them down because he couldn't advocate neo-liberal economic policies.
Interesting chap. Obviously I hope he goes with Labour and the Greens.
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DexterX, in reply to
Really thought McCarten could offer better advice.
He probably has - likely - it may not be sinking in.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
The media desperately need a narrative supplied, or they are forced to invent their own
Well yes, because the Media are a bunch of apologists for National or totally incapable of actual Journalism or both.
Which I must say is not a fact but not far from it. There are journalists out there with the skills and integrity to prise the fact from the fiction, unfortunately they are not "gushing" enough about "Baby George" to be of any interest to the average Kiwi, apparently. And as smiling John is out there with the three way hand kissing and shaking that baby, the Media are enthralled with the "Real" news. -
The Granny says Cunliffe did the right thing. It's only one perspective though.
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I think many who used to vote Labour are already voting Green. Based on the performance of the Green party over the last few years I would expect them to largely keep their 15ish % of the vote and maybe even do better.
I get why Labour won't do a deal before hand and I hope that doesn't back fire on them but they really need to step it up. It seems like Labour is missing in action on most days of the week. They need to stop being the invisible party and get back into view and take a leadership role.
As for Winston - he needs to be on permanent fishing leave. He is an entertaining character but the stakes are too high to be playing childish games.
I was profoundly disappointed that Helen Clark shafted the Greens ( twice) and I don't want to see that happen again. Like many voters I expect the Greens to be a full coalition partner if Labour pulls its head out of the sand and starts campaigning.
Where is Matt McCarten? And why is Deborah Manning on the team now? What is that about?
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Sacha, in reply to
shafted the Greens ( twice)
Greens weren't offering the right numbers at least one of those times. Labour didn't handle the negotiations honourably from what I heard, but hopefully we're all past that.
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Sacha, in reply to
And why is Deborah Manning on the team now? What is that about?
to give us hope :)
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Labour and Greens have it in the bag Man...
Sing along with me...
Oravida Border Guarder baby,
Why can't you tell me his name?
Well that was fun...
Just had to get it out there eh? -
Ian Dalziel, in reply to
La Vida 'Orror'...
Just had to get it out there
Brill..
a veritable 'dairy air'
for Collins to sing
(out her derriere?)Loco Motive Breath
fits the shuffling madness,
of the all time loser, tooHer Iron Lady
is rusting in the heat
and heading off the tracks...Farmer Joe over at the Porcupine Farm
has captured it perfectly... -
Or......
Border Guard Oravida baby,
Why can't you tell me his name?
From Iron Lady lookalike to Iron Butterfly sound alike.
This Lady is not for tuning and not returning either,
Like the rest of those moody blues....
You got to go now, go now, go now, if you don't wanna see me cry..... -
Ian Dalziel, in reply to
Whey to go,...
Like the rest of those moody blues….
You got to go now, go now, go now…..I'm loving the 'Mooey' Blues...
We'd best be careful not to get Collins' goat,
in case we end up with a fatty lipid...
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