Hard News: Democracy Night
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Oh, and apologies to Sua William Sio and his crew in Māngere that I pointed at before here, because 27759 including specials is a really good turnout given the age profile of the electorate, the high number on the Māori roll, and it's all higher and redder than last time. As is all of Auckland. Well done there. Just a couple percent down on typical enrolments for under-25's, but better enrolment with older voters.
Where Labour has fallen isn't Auckland, they gained everything back in the city from the 2008 drop-off, it's everywhere else in the country that's flipped to brand Key, there's a lot of people in the other centres and wider out voting Labour local and National list.
I guess there's only so much money and time to go around.
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I made an advance vote this year; just seemed obvious, given there was a polling station in the lobby of the building I worked in.
In hindsight, I don't think I'll be doing that again. Just doesn't feel the same, not toddling off to the local school to vote on the day itself. I missed that interaction, yesterday, smiling and having a nice word to the staff, mulling things on my walk to and from the place.
That, and the "don't mention politics" on social media yesterday, I instead found myself stewing along, thinking about politics more than I've done on election day in any election previous. By the time the results started to come through I'd worked myself into a complete funk of despair about what the results might be; confirmed for the longest time as it looked likely National was going to be able to govern alone.
As it turns out, it's not quite that bad. I think there'll still be enough political pull to temper some of the worst tendencies of National's right wing.
And, of course, there'll be the soul-searching on the left. Can Labour get back all those Green voters? People who voted Green for the first time because Labour wasn't speaking to them and now found it didn't hurt and the didn't immediately become sandal-wearing hippies?
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Here is a hacked-up visualisation of party votes in Wellington Central by polling place. Visible area of each circle is proportionate to votes received, and the circles proceed inwards from the most to least votes (for the top three parties at each booth). It's less interesting than I'd expected, but it would work just as well for another electorate if anybody knows somewhere that might be more edifying.
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Oh yes it can. Steve Barnes’ attitude is typically Christchurch Labour. They truly regard any vote that is not right of centre as theirs, just stolen by moustache-twirling spivs like the Greens hoodwinking people who would otherwise vote Labour.
Hebe, I hate to say this, but you don't actually have a clue about the attitudes of Christchurch Labour. I mean, realistically, I suspect that on election day, more Green voters were turned out by the Labour Party than by the Green Party.
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Lilith __, in reply to
Can Labour get back all those Green voters?
Shouldn't Labour be trying to get back some voters from National? And all those who didn't bother voting? I'm not seeing the Greens as the threat to Labour here.
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Not for the first time, ditto Lilith.
Perhaps Labour people could credit people voting Green because they want to see issues affecting the planet's viability addressed? Apart from some mumbling about the ETS, I really don't recall hearing much from Labour about those issues. They might start attracting people who (party voted) Green once they're credible on environmental issues.
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Sacha, in reply to
around here
you must get some great views of planes on windy days
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Sacha, in reply to
protest vote against Labour, by voting for a Green candidate who never had a chance of winning the seat
You show little sign of understanding how the electorate and party votes relate under MMP. You might want to remedy than before making any further pronouncements about it.
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Sacha, in reply to
I think what happened is that at the last minute a lot of Labour voters decided to give their party vote to NZ First just to spite the right .
Or voters saw NZ First as the best way to them of moderating the prospect of a govern-alone National party intent on selling public assets.
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Sacha, in reply to
I think voters are a little more complex – and a lot less stupid – than the media-political complex gives them credit for.
+1
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I mean, realistically, I suspect that on election day, more Green voters were turned out by the Labour Party than by the Green Party.
I'll post shortly (I'm off to wash my Grandma's ceiling, something I've put off during the campaign), but Labour and the Greens had an excellent working relationship this year, at every level. It felt like a love-in sometimes. They're in a hole and will want to pull out of it, so I'm not sure it will last. We'll move into different times.
And to echo some comments upthread, I went to a Mt Roskill candidates meeting to support Julie Anne Genter, and had the pleasure of hearing Goff speak. He was warm, commanding, magisterial, and entirely in-touch, even when speaking to a church audience on uncomfortable issues of morality. At that moment I wished that every New Zealander had had the chance to hear him properly, on his own terms. It's a pity that the hounds which have been baying for blood will no doubt get it, and he'll fade into history.
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Sacha, in reply to
WTF were Labour voters of Epsom thinking? And Green voters?
in that electorate, they can call it principle but incompetence at tactical voting also seems a plausible explanation
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Sacha, in reply to
from the effects?
Winston First, prehaps.. :)
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
You appear to be blaming the Greens for the failure of the Labour Party machinery to turn its vote out.
Not blaming the Greens, blaming the ignorant voters.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
You show little sign of understanding how the electorate and party votes relate under MMP. You might want to remedy than before making any further pronouncements about it.
I obviously understand more than you do. An electorate vote is for an electorate, a party vote is for a party. Which bit don't you get?.
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Steve Parks, in reply to
Well, the 3,093 folks who voted for David Parker might well have shared Goff’s totally sincere shock and outrage at undemocratic attempt to game the system and manipulate voters.
So they vote for a candidate they know won't win that seat (and who will go into parliament anyway) and therefore insure that that attempt to game the system actually works. Makes no sense.
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Sacha, in reply to
what percentage do The Greens need to reach to get one more MP?
someone on Twitter last night said another 0.2%, which seems 'highly likely' on specials.
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Sacha, in reply to
Winning an electorate seat does not win an MMP election, except for a few highly-discussed seats like Epsom and Ohariu. Party vote dictates the overall proportions, not the local electorate results you seem to be blaming.
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It lives
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Sacha, in reply to
blaming the ignorant voters
And yes, that's a prime example of the contempt for the public that has been rewarded yesterday.
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Welcome to the new slavery
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
And yes, that's a prime example of the contempt for the public that has been rewarded yesterday.
How many times do I have to remind you that I was not running for Parliament?
It is more akin to saying...
" the contempt for the public has been justified by yesterday's result"
It is National that shows the true contempt, a lack of understanding of the needs of the country.
They continually tell us that we can't afford to support the most needy members of our society but, somehow, we can still afford the rich. -
Sacha, in reply to
Labour and the Greens had an excellent working relationship this year
really glad to hear that. they need one.
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Sacha, in reply to
it's partly an issue of Labour holding its broad church together
MMP also offers the prospect of the party letting go and narrowing its focus to resolve internal tensions. Then they become coalition tensions instead. :)
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But up thread people mocked the idea of throwing the gays under the bus. Pick one or the other guys.
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