Hard News: A week being a long time in politics
333 Responses
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If trademe forums had existed (did it?) a few weeks before the 2002 election, you'd probably have found a preponderance of rightwingers moaning on about helengrad and the like.
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Dinah Dunavan, in reply to
Any candidate who goes into the last week of a campaign complaining about “media bias” is in a losing position, that line may shore up your core support but looks whiney and dishonest to the undecideds
Unless you happen to be Winston Peters, in which case you look strong and pricipled and the swing voters head towards you in droves.
Not releasing the tapes is playing right into Peter's hands. He is getting way more news time than he might have done otherwise and I haven't heard anyone calling "bull shit" on his pronouncements regarding the content of the tapes. Which makes me think that either he knows the content, or the media is his poodle again.
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Richard Aston, in reply to
the media is his poodle again.
Dinah the media have always been his poodle ( with some exceptions) he whistles and they came running up like puppy dogs eager for some action.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
If trademe forums had existed (did it?) a few weeks before the 2002 election, you'd probably have found a preponderance of rightwingers moaning on about helengrad and the like.
There was a popular NZ forum I used to hang around on for a period of a few years which happened to coincide with both the 2005 and 2008 elections. I used to play a variation on Godwin: how many posts would it take for an entirely unrelated subject to attact a post decrying PC gone mad and the KKKlarke government in Helengrad.
Someone would start a thread asking how to change their oil filter/worm the cat/tie a fishing lure/fix their flux capacitor/whatever, and it was more or less guaranteed that within half a dozen posts someone would post a rantette about how it was so much more difficult these days because you couldn't import the parts required, they were banned, just because all those children in Oaklahoma went blind, it was all the gubbermint's fault, a free man couldn't breath these days without some interfering lesbian peering over his shoulder, and so on. It got highly tedious very quickly, and I gave that particular forum up a couple of years ago.
But it was usually the same couple of dozen or so users every time (out of probably 500 active/semi-active participants). Filtering their opinion as outliers was relatively straightforward. And, possibly uniquely, I met a reasonable number of the other users in real life. Their opinions sync'd reasonably closely to what they were saying online, and were, I think, a reasonable way of gauging 'the public mood'. So, even allowing (and compensating for) the 'angry right winger' element, something like the TM forums, which are active across a broad scope of NZ society, could be a useful way of sniffing the air. Maybe. Interviewing a browser is perilous at the best of times.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
I'm not going to change anyone else's mind and vice versa
That seems to be the message of this election entirely. For all the sound and fury, for all the photo opportunities, the polls* seem to show that people made up their minds 6 months ago or more.
It doesn't stop us having discussions.
* But the polls may not be correct, sample sizes are small and sampling is not random so that leaves me very curious about the results of the only poll that actually matters.
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Richard Aston, in reply to
Me too JLM - I am really worried about the level of unbridled power about to wash over us like a tsunami .
Tim Watkins blog on this has not had much pick up yet. He's looking out over the teapots to a very scary future. -
Euan Mason, in reply to
"What gets me is how any government in NZ, 2011 can get any support at all for the prospect of selling assets."
The answer lies in that which regularly destroys economic prosperity in the west; people want reduced taxes but enhanced services, and they don't see the oxymoronic connection. Selling state assets provides a short period during which a government can bask in the glow of fairyGodMotherhood.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
in the west
????
Western Europe is a high tax high service structure as is Scandinavia.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
Me too JLM – I am really worried about the level of unbridled power about to wash over us like a tsunami .
First, I guess we should wait a while until the only poll that really matters (tm) is signed, sealed and delivered. :) Otherwise, I don't know how seriously to take all the hand-wringing about "unbridled power". If National ends up enjoying an absolute majority of seats in the next Parliament (which, FWIW, I don't believe will happen) I say that's one for the "democrazy's a bitch, but she's our bitch" file.
I'd also note that even if National is in a position to govern along, we're exceedingly unlikely to see Jar-Jar Binks (Nat - Naboo) move a motion to vest powers in John Key to bring about the creation of the Galactic Empire.
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Neil Graham, in reply to
For all the sound and fury, for all the photo opportunities, the polls seem to show that people made up their minds 6 months ago or more.
People may not change to a different party but if they have a sour taste in their mouth about their pick on election day then they might think it's not worth heading down to the voting booth.
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linger, in reply to
democrazy’s a bitch, but she’s our bitch
But as Neil's comment suggests, that's no longer true if a sizeable proportion of voters are disengaged.
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In regards to the trade me forum, in my experience it is simply a mindless outlet for mass manipulation and is wall to wall with rightwing ‘operatives’, (a loyal and longstanding crew) making every effort to influence what could potentially be a very large audience comparative to other ‘blogs’ To suggest tm is a valid representation of public opinion is a set up waiting for a punch line ...
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linger, in reply to
we’re exceedingly unlikely to see Jar-Jar Binks (Nat – Naboo) move a motion to vest powers in John Key to bring about the creation of the Galactic Empire
Yeah, but somehow I still don't find the argument "they may be muppets, but they're our muppets" very satisfying...
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Richard Aston, in reply to
I’d also note that even if National is in a position to govern along, we’re exceedingly unlikely to see Jar-Jar Binks (Nat – Naboo) move a motion to vest powers in John Key to bring about the creation of the Galactic Empire.
What you mean we haven't created a Galactic Empire already - shit I thought we had that sussed - what are our leaders doing twiddling their thumbs?
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Here comes NBR on a "Get Winston" white charger:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-first-crosses-mmp-threshold-ck-104662
I wonder if that story has been waiting in the wings "just in case".
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Sacha, in reply to
we're exceedingly unlikely to see Jar-Jar Binks (Nat - Naboo) move a motion to vest powers in John Key to bring about the creation of the Galactic Empire.
Isn't that pretty much what this government has already done to Christchurch/Canterbury - and got away with? Do we really want to see what Joyce looks like with no checks and balances other than internal party tensions?
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Yeah, but somehow I still don’t find the argument “they may be muppets, but they’re our muppets” very satisfying…
Oh, I don’t so why should you? :) But I also don’t find particularly satisfying cursing the outcome of a free, fair and credible election when the outcome isn’t to your liking. Chris Trotter had a typically nasty projectile spew in the Sunday Star Times the day after the last election, and Brash didn’t exactly distinguish himself as a graceful (narrow) loser after the last one.
I wonder if that story has been waiting in the wings “just in case”.
I believe Matt Nippert has been working on this story for a long time (and it’s exactly the kind of financial investigative piece the NBR has done well in the past), but I’m sure the last week has been a welcome hook.
I’m hoping the cock-struck press will decide that now’s an opportune moment to take a look at who might ride into Parliament on Winnie’s coattails. IIRC, 5% will bring in five or six other MPs with Peters. If Andrew Williams is the cream of that crop, we should all be very very nauseated.
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My point about TM is that it could give a wider view of the populations views on politics compared with here (liberal/left) Kiwiblog (right/raving ) or the Standard (hard left/raving )
I can't say I have followed it enough to say which way it swings or is swung except it seems to mirror the polls which show about 50% National and quite a few Winston followers who I don't come across in the flesh at all -
Rich of Observationz, in reply to
a rantette about how it was so much more difficult these days
You know, and forgive me for being callous, but the absolute locus of this stuff would be the West Coast, and especially people like miners.
Then of course, it comes out that unsafe behaviour became routine, possibly because the workers and management considered such things to be lesbian-imposed political correctness.
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The saga has reached the Guardian's Media site although without much comment, yet
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2011/nov/14/newzealand-phone-hacking
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RB:
I fondly recall reading there once a warning that I was "an extreme Marxist", which would certainly surprise the folk at The Standard.
lol ;)
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I guess you're pretty happy with Phil Goff then, and his trappist vow of silence for the first 18 months of the Key government.
Me, I think the job of the opposition is to oppose, and that starts the day after the election.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
I can’t say I have followed it enough to say which way it swings or is swung except it seems to mirror the polls which show about 50% National and quite a few Winston followers who I don’t come across in the flesh at al
I recall there being plenty of perfectly nice and mutually supportive people there -- but also a much higher percentage of angry nutbars than you would find in actual real life.
Mind you, it's got nothing on the Yahoo NZ forums, which tend to make Kiwiblog comments look like Public Address. After all these years, I'm still sometimes amazed at how horrible people feel they can be online.
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Sacha, in reply to
and their job is to present a viable alternative - another activity that takes a few years, not a few weeks.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
I recall there being plenty of perfectly nice and mutually supportive people there – but also a much higher percentage of angry nutbars than you would find in actual real life.
It’s the whole cloak of anonymity thing – trolls can get away with saying nasty stuff on the Web that they wouldn’t use in real life. As the #mencallmethings movement goes to show, blowing their cover is the thing they most dread.
And if we ever get our own Anders Breivik, would it force them to pause and think, or just invoke the No True Scotsman clause or worse?
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