Posts by Stephen Judd
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"Is Nature liberal or conservative?"
Sing with me and Gilbert and Sullivan:
"Nature always does contrive / that every boy or girl born alive / is either a little liberal or a little conservative"
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liberals like PZ Myers see it as merely a stick to beat low hanging conservative fruit
That is a nasty accusation to make of PZ. The man is a teaching biology professor who has to deal with the confusion wrought by creationists (whether or not in ID drag) every day of his working life. I'd be pretty damned cranky if I were him too.
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I'd say that's the beginning of the end.
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One thing I will agree with you on Marcus is that salaries for new graduates do not seem to have risen in a way that compensates for the typical student loan. This thread and the original post has a few hints at why...
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I really do not believe that anyone is going to be lending sizeable amounts money for securities to twenty-somethings with pre-existing minimal net worths and salaries well below the $70-$90k numbers you are throwing around
Sure. But that has always been true of 20-somethings. People in their 20s never have had much by way of net worth or the capacity to borrow to purchase assets, (unless they were made of sterner stuff than me).
We brought up margin lending to counter the statement that houses are the only way for the average punter to be leveraged. It was not proposed as a solution for the poor 20-something,
If you read my first posts, you would have noticed that I think we have a bubble caused by tax evasion, and that the handwringing from the real estate people is self-serving. That accusation of blindness is a little harsh.
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Rich, here's the list. On a lot of shares ASB will only lend 40%. Also note that if you don't gear more than about 50%, then the dividend yield may well cover the interest.
You're right about the margin calls, but that assumes you've drawn all the credit you can. I never have (and I don't have any margin debt right now). Anyway the point that houses are not the only leveraged option for the average punter has been made, I think.
Maybe houses have more going for them psychologically though. As several people have noted upthread, some people really are focussed on owning a place to live, not making a great investment.
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I've lost count of the number of times I've been told over the last 3 or 4 years that "the bubble is going to burst" - this could mean that it's never going to happen, or that we're about due...
I should fess up here and note that I nearly bought when we moved to Auckland three years ago, but opted out, and I gnash my teeth at the capital gains we could have enjoyed but missed out on. On the other hand I've saved quite a chunky sum while living in a posh suburb (good school for my daughter, dontcher know) so it hasn't been all bad. But perhaps I have a bad case of sour grapes. You'll all be sorry! All of you!
I do, I really do think it's a bubble. The biggest clue is how badly rents have lagged house prices. If there were really an accommodation shortage, rents should be a lot higher than they are.
Sometimes I feel I'm verging on Tim Selwyn nutbar territory, but shorn of the yellow-peril racism he did have a point that our urban economy seems to be based on a) foreign credit to buy houses and consumer goodies and b) immigration to ensure the value of the collateral and c) hoping that we'll pay off the whole country on the never never. In my darker moments, If it weren't for the farmers and pretty landscapes, we'd be rooted.
I contemplate our declining research investment, our continued reliance on agriculture and tourism, and the wilful blindness to the distorted economy based on house speculation, and foresee my offspring being peons in a retirement home theme park for foreigners.
/totters off to pour out cheap wine and tend to the stove - surely we'll always have cheap good wine?
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My name is Stephen Judd, and I'm a procrastinator. Hi, Yamis!
Um, yes, you're an investor, and boy, that's lousy performance (see my remarks on managed funds above).
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I assume turning 45,000 into close to 150,000 in 3 years is not all that easy
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It's all in the leverage. You could have made that in other investments,if you were prepared to borrow to the extent that you have against your house. (Also, is 45000 your deposit + all your payments? Your deposit + all payments is the appropriate base figure).
I don't worry about the risks ever. I didn't buy it to make money,
There's no arguing with that!