Posts by David Hood
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Here is the difference in turnout in relation to the 2014 general election, Māori electorates in red.
Looked at this way (engagement compared to the general election) Māori electorates could either be described as much more negative than expected given the level of engagement, or much more engaged than expected given the level of support for change (this is describing the same effect from different directions).
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Legal Beagle: The flag referendum:…, in reply to linger,
Yep, and if you do turnout relative to the general, on the above graph it would shift the Māori electorates to the right a bit.
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Legal Beagle: The flag referendum:…, in reply to linger,
I'm just starting to tease out some of the turnout things. Early stages but:
- The Māori electorate flag turn seems to be up slightly (or rather, down less) when compared to where it might be expected to be if it was down by the same amount as general electorates (this is considering the effect of the flag referendum rather than general voter engagement) which is kinda interesting.
- Turnout isn't really linear with respect to political party support, it looks more clustered to me. If you look directly at flag referendum turnout it is the Māori electorates & a few others in one cluster, if you look at it as the flag referendum relative to general election outcomes the Māori electorates group with the majority of other electorates leaving the few others as the outliers. -
Legal Beagle: The flag referendum:…, in reply to linger,
The graph for Lockwood support against 2014 National party vote.
Yes, and if you remove the relationship between National party support and support for changing the flag, then there is no relationship between flag change and political party support
I've put graphs for all the parties, and an explanation of what it is saying, over here:
https://thoughtfulbloke.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/a-national-flag/
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Legal Beagle: The flag referendum:…, in reply to Paul Campbell,
the most partisan voters seem to have been National supporters
Very much so, looking at the regression graphs of electorate party support and flag voting.
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Polity: Global behemoths and tax, in reply to Heather McCracken,
I can buy that same Mac in the US for $1299. On a straight currency conversion that’s NZ$1900. Is an extra $500 per unit justified to get the product to NZ?
Are you adjusting for GST vs the still to be added on sales tax for the US state you are in?
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ACT
ACT
Can David Seymour revive the party in an electoral sense, and is he relying on peeling off soft National voters to do so?(Admittedly this is based on the data for one election back) If your voters like National more than your own political party, and the majority of your voters from the previous election remember themselves as voting for National, then you are not a political party with genuine support. You are a National backed strategic voting initiative.
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Just reading about how, because Sander's support is local and decentralised (and being built as such), it cannot be centrally run- it is network building that happens to be focus on progressive candidates than a campaign of an established party for a person.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/12/inside-bernie-sanders-campaign-do-or-die
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Sanders won the Michigan primary this afternoon. Which was remarkable for two reasons : he had been 20% behind in the polls a few days ago, and (equally unheard of) apparently more 18-25 year olds voted than 65+ year olds..
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Hard News: The unstable Supercity, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
like ArcGIS or MapInfo
or R
My computer is currently calculating world population by timezone in the background, using shapefiles of timezones against shapefiles of locations of populations and population information, then adding it all up (this is just a hobby project thing, but it is analysing geospatial data together with other data).
