Posts by David Hood
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Auckland has an unaffordability edging all the way towards 11 (as a multiple of income)
Ireland sprawled massively and was at 5.5 when it's bubble burst, remember what that was like for Ireland?
Apartments in Tokyo was (I think) at around 18 in 1989 (possibly the most unaffordable in history for the population living there) and the 1990s are referred to "the lost decade" from the fallout. -
Polity: Geography and housing options, in reply to Rick Townsend,
The housing situation here is exactly the same as Auckland.
Except that by most of the metrics of comparing houses affordability to local peoples ability to pay for them, Auckland works out to be about 1 and 1/2 times less affordable than London. Current London is kinda equivalent to Auckland 2012, before the bubble on top of the bubble.
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I am just of the opinion neither building up nor out will make much difference to Auckland house prices while it is so disconnected from the local economy, and I have not yet heard anyone explain how something that does not respond to local economic signals is supposed to start responding to those local signals give its lack to date.
I spent the past couple of days assembling the data for this graph- the ratio of median house prices to GDP per person, so a measure of the degree to which the economic activity of that person underwrites the prices of the houses in that locale. The grey dots are every metropolitan area in the United States that I could easily match the GDP, population, and median house prices for. I've added three lines to put Auckland into context of the initial graph that sparked this article: Auckland, New York as being from the expensive without many builds part of the first infographic, and Las Vegas from the massive builds no price change part of the graph.
In both New York and Las Vegas the ability of peoples economic contributions to afford the price of local houses is pretty similar, even if the raw prices themselves are rather different. Auckland is not responding to the local economy, it was a bit unaffordable when compared to the US at the peak of the US housing bubble, but since the US bubble burst and Auckland's didn't (instead now adding a bubble on bubble) it seems to me it is going to take some demand side levers (things around capital gains and the ability to hide the source of money in housing) to make any difference.
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I am glad the growing urban sprawl and decrease in population density in the central core relative to the fringes has kept house prices in London affordable since the 1980s.
Which might prompt comments that London is different to the U.S. cities, my point is so is New Zealand.
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"We have John Key’s word on this."
He is a man of many roles. Was he commenting wearing his Panama hat?
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"that during a garden-variety recession, or a major fiscal cataclysm like a bubble"
To me that is the distinction of voting conservatively (which can actually either be right or left) for fear of losing what you have, and voting radically (which can either be right or left) because you have nothing to lose.
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I am not so convinced- the entire reason the Democratic Party has super delegates is to prevent radical populists that would have otherwise won the nomination. A generation of political thinking was set with McGovern's loss to Nixon and the thought that never again should they offer a radical candidate.
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The big split risk for the Dems is if (though unlikely) Sanders wins the voted delegates but e Superdelegate advantage gives Clinton the nomination. Superdelgates are quietly hoping Sanders does not gain (about 4% last I saw) support in the remaining primary contests.
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"And Gareth Morgan paid for it"
Would he want exclusive use of a corner of the flag for his lifetime?
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When it comes to turnout, and it's relationship to the result, I tend to agree with Linger that you need to think of the electorates as different clusters. I reckon 3, each with their own story.
I would also say turnout was not significantly motivated by interest in the new flag in any of the communities, if you want the full argument on that one, I've put it here
https://thoughtfulbloke.wordpress.com/2016/03/29/stuff-pakeha-like-flag-referendums/
