Posts by Graeme Edgeler
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Legal Beagle: Crowdsourcing Project Cortex, in reply to linger,
(Hence also references to Cortext protection; Protect Cortext.)
I typed that pretty much every time, and did correct a lot of them, but it was after midnight, and I had to get up at 5:00am!
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You'd have thunk, for a blog post I specifically asked for comments in, that I'd remember to turn comments on.
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to Andrew R266,
Graeme I think you need to account for the age of the person at the time of the offences. As I understand it there is a reducing offence rate as people get older, over 30 years old. Is that a factor”
It's relevant to individual likelihood of reoffending, but not sure it would have too much of a factor overall over so short a time-frame (five years before, five years after). Probably something to look at longer term, however.
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to MPH,
But that does raise quite an important point. Do your numbers account for the fact that people committing strike offences in 2005-2010 include young people under 18 years old? Again – possibly very significant impact on the results.
I was careful to limit my questions in all comparator groups to those offending at age 18 or above.
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to chris,
In this article I can’t seem to find how many third strike convictions there were. If only the first and second are being discussed then why have three?
I believe there are yet to be any (maybe one).
The consequence of a second strike is that you aren't eligible for parole, so people who have committed a second strike are reasonably likely to still be in prison, and unable to easily commit a third strike (although a serious prison assault can count, of course).
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to MPH,
Young people can commit first strike offences out of sheer stupidity and impulsiveness.
Offending by young people, and even those recognised by the criminal justice system as adults at 17, does not fall within the three strike regime.
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to MPH,
Finally, I think it is wrongheaded to look for the cause of reduced recidivism in programmes implemented recently. Much more likely it would be programmes implemented with children about 10-18 years before they end up in prison for the first time. That is, I would look for intervention in 1997-2005. Only secondarily would I look at the services provided by Corrections.
I think it would be an odd sort of childhood intervention that meant a person was still pretty likely to commit a strike offence, but was much less likely to commit a second strike offence, if convicted of the first.
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I don't want to be all censorious, but this post really isn't about David Garrett, so it would be cool if people could lay off the trawl through his history.
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Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial…, in reply to eszett,
I guess one question would be what was the trend for recidivism for all offendings (not just strike offendings). Does the strike offending recidivism follow or buck the trend of general recidivism?
From memory, it's down, but not by that much. A good place to look. Thanks!
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Comments opened :-)