Legal Beagle: Paula's Peril; or The (un)certain Scenario
99 Responses
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
The Sainte-Laguë method ...is not a percentage of the vote = number of seats system. If it was then National's 47.31% of the vote translates to only 56 seats not 59.
Yes it is.
The reason why 47.31% of the vote => 59 seats is that:
3.37% of the votes went to parties that didn't make threshold.
47.31 / (100-3.37) = 48.96%
48.96 * 120 = 59 seats (by simple rounding and ignoring the 121st overhang seat)St Lague is just a way of fairly and consistently rounding off the numbers.
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Cocytus: Sainte-Laguë just ensures the (root mean square) difference between the % of seats and % of vote is as small as possible for any given number of seats. Any other calculation makes parliament less proportional on average, including things like thresholds, which is how National gets too many seats (their higher share of the votes mean more of the binned vote transfers to them).
One thing that might help it is letting parties share their excess vote around as they please, so that the 3-4 left wing parties don't all round down while the 2-3 right wing parties all round up. Might alienate voters, of course, unless done up front.
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Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to
Is there any MMP scenario in which the voters of Waitakere get to pelt her leopard-skin ministerial car with rotten fruit as it drives humiliatedly out of town? Because that's what I would really, really like.
Perhaps, as she drives away for the last time, Waitakere voters could line the avenues and give her a fitting send-off with this song? Poignant.
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merc,
But but the dream is not over, the cuts will continue and the list saves the day for Paula.
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David Hood, in reply to
Perhaps, as she drives away for the last time, Waitakere voters could line the avenues and give her a fitting send-off with this song?
My daughter can do "Now I only want you gone" from the Portal 2 game on ukulele, but we are at the other end of the country.
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Joke time…
A vagrant is sitting on a roadside park bench in West Auckland, when out of nowhere, Paula Bennett’s leopard-skinned ministerial limo zooms past. Several minutes later, two stocky men struggle and heave to haul a very obviously stolen money safe. Still another several minutes later, the cops show up. One cop asks the vagrant, “Excuse me sir, but did you happen to see any fat thieves going this way?” To which the vagrant replies, “Sure did… but you better hurry, ’cause you won’t be able to nab ’em on foot.”
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Brent Jackson, in reply to
I think the threshold should be set to that required to get 2 MPs into the house (somewhere around 1.5%), in order to avoid a proliferation of single MP parties (we get more than enough of those via the electorate votes ;-).
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merc, in reply to
There shouldn't even be single MP parties by definition.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I'd agree with that.
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Sacha, in reply to
fat
classy
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merc, in reply to
Yeah that sucked.
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DPF is reporting that Bennett won by a nine-vote majority in the recount. Not up on any news sites yet, but if he's saying it I'm fairly confident that it's true.
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Sacha, in reply to
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nzlemming, in reply to
Bugger.
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Graeme Edgeler, in reply to
Bugger.
This had to happen for my scenario to come true. Now for the next step.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I do hope there's a petition. No real reason not to try, at least. It matters a lot to the outcome for both government and opposition. Could Waitakere mirror Wairarapa, and flip on a petition, by a very small margin? Magnifying the power of the Maori party hugely.
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WAAAARGH. A scrofulous pox upon you, Paula Bennett. Get out of my life.
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Islander, in reply to
+ a zillion - sandfly bites or zits would also do fine.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
+ a zillion - sandfly bites or zits would also do fine.
As they say in Libya...
"May your body hair be infested by the fleas of a thousand camels"
or so I've heard. Wonderful people.
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Going from +11 to -9 is quite a change considering how carefully the counting is done. If I were Sepuloni I’d totally go for a petition.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
Going from +11 to -9 is quite a change
Not only that but there is something not quite right about a round number, exactly 20 votes found lying around somewhere all with Bennett's name on them? or exactly 20 votes discounted for Sepuloni . Fishy eh?
If you are going to steal an election you should, at least, use random numbers. Damn sloppy if you ask me.
And another thing. What's all this with blinglish saying you can't fix poverty by throwing money at it? like duh. Poverty IS having no money. Nasty looking bugger too. -
Lilith __, in reply to
Nasty looking bugger too.
Handsome is as handsome does.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
Handsome is as handsome does.
Hmmm, Forrest Gump moment.
;-) -
Kumara Republic, in reply to
And another thing. What's all this with blinglish saying you can't fix poverty by throwing money at it? like duh. Poverty IS having no money. Nasty looking bugger too.
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Islander, in reply to
Dear heaven - if only he had had the graphics!
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