Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ...
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linger, in reply to
I can’t share your faux outrage on this occasion. The key fact to remember is that Duynhoven had been chosen as an elected representative, and so the change was one that, in my opinion, respected the voters somewhat more than tossing out the result and re-running the election would have. (And yes, I'd have supported National doing the same thing in the same circumstances.)
From Wikipedia:
In 2003, it was alleged that Duynhoven might have accidentally violated an electoral regulation, thus depriving him of his seat. This claim arose after Duynhoven applied to resume his citizenship of the Netherlands. His father was from the Netherlands, and Duynhoven had possessed citizenship from birth, but had temporarily lost it due to a change of Netherlands law. According to electoral law, applying for foreign citizenship would require Duynhoven to vacate his seat. The law was seen by many as misguided, however, and Duynhoven, with his huge majority, was almost certain to re-enter Parliament in the event of a by-election. As such, the government passed an act retroactively amending the law.
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(Bugger, missed the edit window.) Re “faux outrage” – I should note that Craig is at least consistent in being outraged by this particular use of urgency. But I remember he tried to defend other uses by National early in their term, which were, to my mind, more egregious, on bills more deserving of public scrutiny and considered input (affecting education and job security).
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Islander, in reply to
+1 linger - Craig seems to have a considerable & selective forgettory-
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The sums Labour and National are doing revolve around Treasury growth forecasts which are:
Real economic growth of 2.3% is forecast for the year ending March 2012 and an average - growth rate of 2.9% per year is forecast for the years ended March 2012 to March 2016. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 6.5% in June 2011 to 4.7% in March 2016. A return to surplus in the operating balance (before gains and losses) is forecast for the year ending June 2015 and the ratio of net debt-to-GDP is forecast to peak in the same year.
The key factors these forecasts relies on are detailed here:
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/prefu2011/prefu11.pdfThey are banking on a demand for "food" in China and Asia, and the slow down globally not being that bad and also the Chch rebuild - so how is the Chch rebuild going:
Well you can see that here:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/canterbury-earthquake-building-consents.aspx4 new building consents for Sept 2011 looking at the figures - if things were under control - like say for instance the management of the economy and the Chch rebuild - the stats would have a more even spread and a surge in activity over this summer - me thinks - depending on what is going on with the rebuild & why it is stalling - it may be time for the pressure that must be building to present itself in public protest.
What do others say about the state of things: - Fletcher Building, who have a privileged position, have issued a profit warning forecast and the ASB and RBNZ: from the NZ Herald 31 Oct 2011 say this:
ASB's Turner said the "most crucial aspect of the construction outlook is the timing and extent of earthquake reconstruction activity and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) is not expecting this to pick up in any meaningful extent until mid-2012."
None of this is going to matter to the election as the quarter ending Dec 2011 won't be considered until Feb and hey the new Govt is likely to say things are far worse than we expected but won't really move to address much until sometime later in the year 2012. Likely July 2012 when they can see how the tax take has been for the year ending Mar 2012.
I feel the treasury forecast are likely to be off significantly and that any reliance on the fiscal musing of the major parties based on the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2011 is about as beneficial as collecting rainwater with a teaspoon.
The short of it, IMHO, is we appeared to be screwed for the next few years.
The choice you have is to vote for the option that is likely to do the least harm - as in not make a bad situation worsen; I can't see that being Labour.
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"The choice you have is to vote for the option that is likely to do the least harm - as in not make a bad situation worsen; I can't see that being Labour."
I can't see it being National either......in fact, of the two, in a crunch, I would trust Labour to look after the interests of ordinary citizens, rather than National.
I won't be voting for either of them.
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Try to project what each party's response will be, as our MMP government, to a several billion dollar hole in their accounts and accompanying pressure from international business and government chums and ratings agencies.
The outcome of this election does make a huge difference, which is why the abject muppetry of some in it is unforgiveable.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
The choice you have is to vote for the option that is likely to do the least harm – as in not make a bad situation worsen; I can’t see that being Labour.
No, it's going to be a party we have never heard of appearing at the last moment to save the day, Super Batman party to the rescue.
Stop living in cloud cuckoo land, it is either going to be National or Labour with the big numbers and unless you believe an all powerful National; Govt. is the answer and, let's face it, they had the numbers to rush their shit through under urgency, then the only option is a vote for Labour electorate in marginal seats, party vote for Green and let MMP do the rest. A vote for Natzional is just giving them rope to hang you with. -
merc, in reply to
Not so! The Natz have secret super weapons to defeat the...bad people.
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Prime Minister John Key has conceded National risk losing the election should the Green Party hold the balance of power.
A Green vote it is then. Thanks Mr. Key.
And don't forget to wave goodbye. -
merc,
It's a Jedi mind trick.
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Paul Williams, in reply to
What period were they talking? The ideological composition of the Greens has certainly changed this year - but that hasn't stopped any of the snideness from some Labour MPs.
The first two terms of the Clark government particularly. I am aware of some of the snideness of Labour, I'm also aware of some of the annoying moral superiority of some Greens (and to be clear, I'd put myself on the right side of Labour but I have genuine respect for many Greens, current and former).
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Sacha, in reply to
The first two terms of the Clark government particularly
Rod Donald's time then.
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Paul Williams, in reply to
Yes. And Donald was obviously someone who valued and worked towards having a constructive relationship.
On an entirely different matter, I'd not recommend reading Cathy Odgers piece on Jacinda Ahern. It's odious, even by her low standards.
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Sacha, in reply to
I'd not recommend reading Cathy Odgers
sound advice at any time.
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DexterX, in reply to
Super Batman party to the rescue
I would vote for a party whose members wore capes and their underwaer on the outside.
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DexterX, in reply to
the abject muppetry of some in it is unforgiveable.
+1
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Gordon Campbell On National’s asset sales debacle
November 7th, 2011The concession by Finance Minister Bill English that National may not get the $5-7 billion it expected from its asset sales programme is a hammer blow to the government’s credibility. A less charitable view would be that having made an ideological commitment to the sales process, English is now talking down the likely sale price that the corporate sector will have to pay for getting their hands on them.
He goes on to say…
So…if English doesn’t really know what the returns will be, does he have a reserve price for these assets where he will withdraw them from the market – and if so, what is it? What’s his bottom line for say, Meridian? Just asking.
So, where’s the money?.
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Paul Williams, in reply to
So, where’s the money?.
An entirely reasonable question, if only the cameras were on you!
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So what's the best thing to do for all of us, then, who want to see a change of government? Do we all vote Labour, and hope for the best? Do we split our vote and give our party vote to Green? The latter is what worries me. A bit like the Auckland Mayoral election a few years ago, when people gave their votes to others, and Banks got in. Not the result anyone wanted.
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Sacha, in reply to
Electorates (and the mayoral election you mention) use FPP where competing candidates can "split the vote" and let a third person win.
MMP's party vote is *not* the same. Voting say Green or Mana rather than Labour does not automatically produce a win for the Nats, just as voting for Act or the Maori Party doesn't mean a win for Labour. It depends who can work with one another after the election, for a variety of reasons.
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Voting Green might do more to help National get in, only if the Greens decided to work with National. But they might be a very moderating influence on National if their coalition votes are actually needed. Voting Green might also help Labour get in.
But I think the likely kingmakers are going to be the very small parties. UF, ACT, Maori. If ACT don't get in (which could possibly be achieved by tactical left voters putting the National candidate in, something they should seriously consider), then it seems likely to me that the Maori Party will be the only moderation on National. Indeed, they could hold the power to swing the entire government either way, if they choose. Or it could even come down to Harawira. If he refuses to work with National, which is very likely, then the center parties could topple left, giving a Labour+Green+MP+Mana (and probably UF, the eternal swinger) party.
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Sacha, in reply to
I believe you're over-rating the willingness of the Maori Party to work with Mana and Dunne to work with the Greens (who he seems to loathe though I've never understood why).
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Sacha, in reply to
only if the Greens decided to work with National
which as we've noted here before is up to their full party membership to approve. Seems likely to be restricted to a few specific areas like their current working arrangement over insulation, with maybe an associate Minister position thrown in depending on the final makeup of the government.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I believe you're over-rating the willingness of the Maori Party to work with Mana and Dunne to work with the Greens (who he seems to loathe though I've never understood why).
Yes, there's a lot of minor horse trading that would have to go on. Perhaps Dunne might actually come out and say what it is he hates and lock it in - perhaps they only have to drop the dope legalization. Maori + Mana would be very interesting to watch. If it's a question of actually being in government, they could bury the mere. We'll see.
Odds are it's going to be Nats + Dunne + MP though. That's my pick.
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Handily, Gordon Campbell has been thinking in more depth about some Greens plus Nats implications and risks.
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