Hard News: The newest neocon catastrophe
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I just found it rather ironic opening the Herald (which is supposedly the paper of record in these parts) and finding that lifting sanctions against a man who was at the center of a military coup in our own backyard wasn't actually considered particularly newsworthy.
I'm slightly out of the loop, but my feeling is that in general the coup in Fiji has now faded to "business as usual for Fiji" in the public consciousness. I know that I have friends in Australia who are planning on going there this year on holiday.
But it is still a bad place to be an Indian, a businessman, gay, a journalist, or a poor Fijian. Anyone except a chief with ties to the military or a soldier basically. I know the NZ government is still exerting pressure, but what else is there to do? I don't think an Australian invasion was ever truly on the cards, despite the gossip in Suva, and I don't really know whether a peacekeeping force would work either. It seems like there are some really serious underlying issues to do with race and the power held by chiefs that need to be addressed before that country will be able to have anything like a modern just and fair political and legal system free from the threat of coups.
So have these things been discussed in the NZ media? Is anyone talking about what to do?
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Here's another McCain foreign policy adviser, Max Boot, urging that the US start directly arming Georgia with new Stinger missiles so that, presumably, it can fulfill its destiny as the American proxy on Russia's border.
Boot, rather notoriously, prescribes the use of "American might to promote American ideals" anywhere in the world.
These people are nuts. And this has the same whiff as the Iraq project. Same Weekly Standard freakshow, same willingness to spill the blood of others in pursuit of dubious ideological goals.
I honestly don't think you can separate this crowd from what is happening there, and from Saakashvili's disastrous decision to start flattening buildings in his troublesome province. It backfired -- but these peole's adventures usually do.
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The world is ... a Marvel Comic.....Barry Obambi
Ahh...I wake up and see James is back
Condi Rice has been very firmly in charge of US foreign policy these last four years and her actions, or inactions on many occasions, have hardly smacked of neocon impulses.
Or competence for that matter
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That might just say nothing more than "if it don't bleed, it don't lead".
Or it can bleed, but not be close enough to secure air-conditioned hotel rooms or feature properly photogenic victims.
In the last decade 5.4 million have died of preventable (by African standards) ailments as a result of the Second Congo Civil War. Before that millions were killed in the mid-1990s during the First Congo Civil War.
During the 80s and 90 the Civil War in Southern Sudan and spilling across into Northern Uganda killed a couple of million. A ceasefire was reached in 2005 and the essentially losing forces of the Khartoum government became involved in Civil War in Western Sudan (Darfur) spreading into Chad.
The Karen and Shan populace ruled by the ethnic Burmese junta continue to be persecuted. North Koreans are regularly subjected to easily avoidable famine.
In other news the horriffic suffering of the Palestinian people continues. And savor baked grouper with seasoned Mediterranean vegetables is served daily at the King Solomon restruant, Tel Aviv Hilton - one minute from the beach, stunning views from all 17 storeys.
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As No Right Turn notes, After the war, the ethnic cleansing.
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Saakashvili now seems to have lost the plot a bit. It really seems he believed the West would rush to his aid if the Russians responded to last Thursday's attack. And more:
He made repeated references not only to the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan in the 1970s, but also to the invasion Prague in 1968 and even repeated references to the German invasion of Poland before the start of World War II.
As for how he planned to halt the formidable Russian forces if they indeed headed toward Tbilisi, he said, “This will not be only Georgian troops” but an “all-out defense.”
“Freedom is worth fighting for,” he said, adding that his country was doing this “not only for us but for the rest of Europe.”
Asked if the White House was doing enough, he said: “I just spoke to President Bush. Frankly, some of the first statements were seen as a green light for Russia. They were kind of soft.”
He said, “Georgia is the first test case.”
He said the United State should be doing more. “We should realize what is at stake for America; America is losing the whole region,” he said.
“Who else can stand up for liberty in the world?”
It appears that the claim of 2000 civilians deaths from the original assault on Tskhinvali is a Russian PR exaggerration, but these BBC pictures serve to emphasise that what happened wasn't trivial either. It's pretty hard to square it with some noble defence of liberty.
You don't have to like the Russians to understand why Georgians are kind of pissed off with their leader.
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is the only bright light in this that the whole schmoozle hasn't been "falluja'ed" a la 2004?
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The fact remains that travel out of Fiji is now extremely difficult for everyone who was involved in the coup. That is pressure.
And by all accounts, it is realy pissing them off.
Still, couldn't Bainamarama chartered his own plane, or taken a boat, or something? Niue is, after all, a lot closer to Fiji than Auckland is.
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Here's another McCain foreign policy adviser, Max Boot, urging that the US start directly arming Georgia with new Stinger missiles so that, presumably, it can fulfill its destiny as the American proxy on Russia's border.
The Stinger is anti-air, it is a defensive weapon system with short range. It is used to defend groundforces against over-flying aircraft, who are trying to bomb them. It is good news for insurgent forces and therefore helps reduce any air-superiority an occupier may have. It is a good idea to put these in the hands of the Georgians to reduce the viability of any Russian occupation.
These people are nuts. And this has the same whiff as the Iraq project. Same Weekly Standard freakshow, same willingness to spill the blood of others in pursuit of dubious ideological goals.
Arming the weak state of Georgia to prevent its invasion and forcible regime change by Russia "has the same whiff as" America invading a weak Iraqi state and forcing regime change? The completely opposing nature the events seem more compelling somehow.
I honestly don't think you can separate this crowd from what is happening there, and from Saakashvili's disastrous decision to start flattening buildings in his troublesome province. It backfired -- but these peole's adventures usually do.
Your evidence so far is that a Republican who worked for the Bush administration on a sub-committee to Wolfowitz, lobbied for Georgia and now works for the McCain campaign. And another Republican has offered a Republican perspective in his capacity as a Republican adviser to the McCain campaign.
MPerhaps these Republicans were hired by the McCain campaign because they are Republicans (now obviously in some circles this is proof positive of evil intent, but bear with me). The Republicans are offering a Republican perspective on a conflict occuring on the other side of the world in time with it occuring. There is scant evidence of an orchestrated response and McCain appears to have been as surprised as anyone by events - the Republicans did not know this was going to happen. The fact that McCain has supported Georgia is perhaps due to bad advice from Scheunemann in the few moments between learning of the war and the first call with CNN, because it looks like the Georgians were the aggressors and to back them seems a misstep.
Conclusion - The war was started because of events outside of the Capitol Beltway into which we (and the two Presidential campaigns) have very little understanding. The talk of conspiracies in Washington reflects our relative knowledge of Washington compared to our nearly complete ignorance of the Causcasus.
For more insight into Central Asian politics suggest a visit Registan which is a long running blog on central asia run with a critical eye on the GWOT.
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Anyone seen the video of Saakashvili being interviewed by CNN and then being spooked by the sound of planes overhead... At which point he sprints off to cover leaving his bodygaurds in his dust?
He may or may not have lost it but he is definately very scared.
video
And then there is the Bush plan to essentially piss off the Russians:
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Arming the weak state of Georgia to prevent its invasion and forcible regime change by Russia
You mean, "Arming the weak state of Georgia, which decided to break a 15-year peacekeeping deal in a contested region by shooting peacekeepers and civilians." Unless you've got more reliable information than is appearing before me in various organisations.
Putin may be a Czarist shit with nasty friends, and Russia may be taking undue advantage of this opportunity presented to them on a platter, but the Georgian government opted to start a war with an unannounced, unprovoked attack on a peacekeeping force.
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It is a good idea to put these in the hands of the Georgians to reduce the viability of any Russian occupation.
Yeah, brilliant scheme. You don't think they might sell them on at all, e.g. to anybody who feels like shooting down airliners?
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I am beginning to think that it would be possible to have a worse president than Dubya. McCain.
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I am beginning to think that it would be possible to have a worse president than Dubya. McCain.
The fact that he cannot use a computer at all puts Bush's 'Teh Google' gaffs in perspective.
Even Ted 'series of tubes' Stevens knows something about the internet.
Imagine the technology policy that would come from a technically illiterate President's administration... Ugh. -
And by technically illiterate, I dont mean that in practice he can't read.
Ahem. -
Your evidence so far is that a Republican who worked for the Bush administration on a sub-committee to Wolfowitz, lobbied for Georgia and now works for the McCain campaign. And another Republican has offered a Republican perspective in his capacity as a Republican adviser to the McCain campaign.
He was the president of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, a board member of the Project for the New American Century and an adviser to Donald Rumsfeld on Iraq. He was one of the chief cheerleaders for Ahmed Chalabi.
His crowd has been steadily eased out of the White House inner circle since Rumsfeld exited -- on grounds of being effing crazy -- so now he's a key foreign policy adviser to McCain.
Moreover, he is providing McCain with advice on Georgia at the same time as his two-person company is under contract to provide advice to Georgia.
And he's not the only adviser to McCain to come from that crowd.
So, yeah, I think it reeks. And I think my original title, 'The newest neocon catastrophe', is not inapt.
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And by technically illiterate, I dont mean that in practice he can't read.
That's functional illiteracy, so you were fine without the clarification :)
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Angus R:
Or it can bleed, but not be close enough to secure air-conditioned hotel rooms or feature properly photogenic victims.
A close relative of the Missing Pretty Girl Syndrome. Jon Stewart parodied the whole thing with a mathematical formula in America: The Book.
I'm sure someone's done a formula of this before, but here goes:
1 dead American ≈ 2 dead Europeans ≈ 5 dead Asians ≈ 50 dead Arabs ≈ 1000 dead Africans, and so forth. -
...the Georgian government opted to start a war with an unannounced, unprovoked attack on a peacekeeping force.
The fact that the weaker state is also the aggressor does not change the fact that it is the weaker state. If you want to prevent a war supply defensive firepower to the weaker state and state alliances. If you want to encourage a war condemn the weaker state and make clear to the stronger that you will not intervene.
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If you want to prevent a war supply defensive firepower to the weaker state and state alliances.
And bang, before you know it, you are sitting in Sarajevo, on 28 June, 1914. I'm sorry Angus but that is completely nuts.
A few stinger missiles are hardly going to prevent Russia from using overwhelming force and may actually increase the damage to Georgia. I would have thought that, given recent events, getting the current Georgian leadership as far away from triggers as possible is a wiser course of action, especially if some of those triggers are tied to alliances..
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And the other question has to be, how far Bush / Obama / McCain is willing to go if this story has legs
South Ossetia was first. But it may well not be last. If I were Ukraine, I'd let those ships back into Sevastopol, because odds are Russia is just waiting for an excuse. And violating a treaty would give Russia all the excuse it needs to itself unilaterally discard the treaty which gave Crimea to the Ukraine, then create some "facts on the ground".
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Classic comment from an excellent article.
Bush is a grownup kid who likes doing to humans what he did to frogs. He also almost certainly has extensive drug/alcohol based brain damage. Putin is a sophisticated, intelligent man with an excellent education who actually understood what he learned and who plays politics like chess, not poker.
DING,DING……………. dongThough possibly totally unrelated to the current war, massive and long-entrenched smuggling and corruption in that part of the world. Googling "Ossetia+drugs" turns up an interesting 2004 book, (written before the pro-EU Georgian government?) I didn't see a mention of Ukraine, but plenty on Transnistria, the ethnic Russian eastern part of Ukraine. Talk about 'watch this space' . . . aren't we lucky to live in New Zealand.
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Simon,
Surprising as it feels we appear to be in significant agreement. It certainly seems as if Georgia is the first of a number of Eastern European and Central Asian countries that are about to feel the reassertion of the Russia of old, reinvigorated under Vlad the Nasty. Not good at all, for anyone, except Vlad and his buddies.Ukraine's Yushenko needs to be very careful, he has a very large Russian minority in his country. It would not be difficult at all for Vlad to engineer a collapse of Yushenko's regime.
Bush / Obama / McCain have not much they can do, beyond a few slaps on the wrist (G8 to G7, no WTO etc.) The US needs Russia right now on Iran at the UN and to not sell weapons to them.
I see that the US and Poland have suddenly signed the BMD agreement to place interceptors in Poland, and Poland insists on having US soldiers stationed with them, which they would see as an implicit security guarantee. Look for a bigger US presence in Romania soon aswell.
Vlad is not a fluff and BS kind of guy. One of the few things that will hurt Russia, is if the price of oil dropped a lot. One of the few ways to make that happen is for the US to start drilling for oil domestically on a significant basis. With the way things are shaping up in the US and in D.C right now that may well happen. Congress has to vote to reaffirm the ban by Sept 30. if they don’t it automatically lapses. You would want to be in a very, very safe Dem seat to vote against domestic drilling right now.
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And bang, before you know it, you are sitting in Sarajevo, on 28 June, 1914.
Yes and the Russians certainly know this as well, preventing them and the USA from taking further action.
I'm sorry Angus but that is completely nuts.
Except the alternative seems to be sitting in Teplitz on 2 October 1938. When neither precedent is good, take the least bad one.
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One of the few ways to make that happen is for the US to start drilling for oil domestically on a significant basis. With the way things are shaping up in the US and in D.C right now that may well happen. Congress has to vote to reaffirm the ban by Sept 30. if they don’t it automatically lapses. You would want to be in a very, very safe Dem seat to vote against domestic drilling right now.
James, laying aside the politics of whether the American people believe that it will help or not, as far as I can tell from this page the total US in-ground oil reserves are somewhere around 20 billion barrels. According to this site, the current US consumption is around 20 million barrels of oil per day. By my math that means that the total US oil reserves could only ever provide around 3 years worth of oil if fully exploited.
It seems to me that a more prudent policy would be to drastically cut oil use rather than manically destroying what wilderness is left on the continent in the vain hope of securing the national interest from "The Russians".
Ignoring the folly of talking yourself into another cold war for no good reason of course.
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