Hard News: So long, and thanks for all the fish ...
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If Robertson was a lumberjack who got a degree whilst chopping down trees and playing rugby it wouldn’t matter to anyone he happened to be gay.
Also, if he was those two things, he'd likely be pretty solidly in the closest, NZ rugby and manual labour culture not known for being incredibly accepting of such things.
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Amanda Wreckonwith, in reply to
What I’d love to know is how you make your arse shiny. Wax? A protective laminate? Daily applications of olive oil?
Could try asking the Attorney General.
Doubt it would be friction related in his case.
By the by - are the stories of his Confederate Flag bedspread apocryphal? (not suggesting that you would know from personal experience of course - perish the thought) -
It seems that from recent NZLP experiences, first-rate captains don't always make for first-rate generals, for lack of a better analogy. I'd have to agree that Shearer would be perfect for Foreign Affairs, given it's his natural turf. And Goff for Defence.
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I cannot see the party choosing as leader anyone who cannot win their electorate seat. That probably rules out Ardern and Little, although one of them might still become deputy. Even though the two main candidates (Cunliffe, Robertson) are men, it would be good to see a woman somewhere in the leadership mix.
Cunliffe seems like the obvious choice for leader, but it remains to be seen whether his caucus are prepared to work with him.
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Stephen Judd, in reply to
And Goff for Defence.
Then that's going to make reform of intelligence services an interesting one.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
I cannot see the party choosing as leader anyone who cannot win their electorate seat
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I don’t have a dog (or a vote) in this hunt, but this would be the same party that was perfectly relaxed with Michael Cullen not being demoted when he went list-only in 1999, and remained so for the entire term of the Fifth Labour Government, yes? Sorry for being a looped MP3 on this, but anyone who thinks “not winning an electorate seat” is a disqualification for high office should also be campaigning for the repeal of MMP. But as I said, I don’t get a say and I assume Labour will be conducting their leadership election by secret ballot so the motives of the people involved are their own.
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ScottY, in reply to
but this would be the same party that was perfectly relaxed with Michael Cullen not being demoted when he went list-only in 1999, and remained so for the entire term of the Fifth Labour Government, yes?
Yes, as deputy. Not leader.
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I too think the “must win an electorate seat” argument is a red herring. Being able to win your electorate seat has far more to do with which electorate an MP is allowed to run in than it has to do with the MP’s political abilities. Yes, getting the nomination in a safe electorate is some indication of the standing you’re held in by the party, but so is a high party list spot.
In addition, I think I’d prefer my local MP not to be Prime Minister. I can’t imagine the PM has as much time available for electorate issues and engagements as those who have less onerous parliamentary roles. -
Russell Brown, in reply to
It occurred to me Cunliffe had been given the job because his smarmy grin would deflect any attempt to fix our network in favour of propping the Telecom monolith.
Imagine my surprise when he used his ‘communication skills’ to dish it out to Telecom execs and the telecommunications regulators whose strings those Telecom execs pulled.It wasn't so much that he "dished it out", but that he had the smarts and focus to set up the reform process and see it through. Regulatory reform is massively complex, which is why must governments bail out or do it half-pie.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
. Regulatory reform is massively complex, which is why must governments bail out or do it half-pie.
Regulatory reform - however mild and ineffectual - also tends to piss of a lot of people who aren't doing badly under the status quo, so whatever issues I have with Cunliffe I wasn't expecting that to make him too many new friends. It never, ever does.
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ScottY, in reply to
I too think the “must win an electorate seat” argument is a red herring.
You may have a point where the candidate has stood in a solid National seat. But it'd be a hard sell to expect party members to give the leadership to someone who cannot win a marginal seat.
If they can't convince a marginal electorate that they're worth voting for, how do they expect to persuade a nation?
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
Yes, as deputy. Not leader.
And Finance - which isn't exactly down the order of precedence with the caucus chai wallah, no matter which side of the House you're sitting on, but I concede the point of fact.
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Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to
That would be a fair point if all candidates had to start out in a marginal electorate before they got to run in a safe one, but they don’t.
The thing is, we never know how the electorate would have voted if someone else had been running. It could be that what was a marginal seat in the last election has moved further to the left or right since then, and that winning or losing reflects that general shift rather than the calibre of the candidate.
That's not to say the candidate makes no difference, just that it's not just the candidate that makes the difference.
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"I don’t think that’s a problem for Labour – people leaving Labour to vote Green is OK, as they’re coalition partners next government. Likely left voters not voting is a problem, people leaving Labour to vote NZ First, Peter Dunne, or National/Act is a problem."
Agreed to a point but Labour needs to be seen to be bigger and stronger in order to motivate the struggling classes to vote I think. It's lost some mana over the last five years and that might affect its ability to get the workers to the polls.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Grant Robertson holds Wellington Central reasonably securely, but if we had a few more million dollar Mt Vic villas and a bit less social housing, or if the electorate were less sophisticated about voting Labour rather than Green (the Greens lead on the party vote), or even if National fielded a candidate who wasn't a complete tool it would be a different story.
Would that reflect on his leadership ability?
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Sam M, in reply to
But she lost that marginal seat in the context of an election where her party had lost the national debate. I would think losing a marginal seat when your party has won the day should be more indicative of some failing.
I'm in the Cunliffe camp, though I am not truly in any camp, not being a member any more. Would possibly re-join if he were at the helm.
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"It wasn’t so much that he “dished it out”, but that he had the smarts and focus to set up the reform process and see it through. Regulatory reform is massively complex, which is why must governments bail out or do it half-pie."
And that Telco reform was a big win for Labour and a real solid reason of why Cunliffe should get the top job
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I don’t think that’s a problem for Labour – people leaving Labour to vote Green is OK, as they’re coalition partners next government.
That's a rather foolish presumption to make -- there is no constitutional or practical reason why the Greens should do any such thing, as opposed to doing nothing more than guaranteeing a Labour minority government confidence and supply, and everything else contingent on case-by-case negotiations. I know it's not a popular thing to say around here, but it's about time both Labour and National got house trained out of their FPP born to rule habits, for once and for all.
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On a lighter, Shearer's arrival at Auckland Airport yesterday: when media scrums go wrong.
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Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to
Indeed, I think it's far more relevant that Jacinda managed to reduce the incumbent's majority despite the overall drop in votes for the Labour Party.
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ScottY, in reply to
Indeed, I think it’s far more relevant that Jacinda managed to reduce the incumbent’s majority despite the overall drop in votes for the Labour Party.
She's certainly a talented politician. I'd like to see a male/female leadership team, and there's a deputy spot up for grabs.
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Hebe, in reply to
I don’t think that’s a problem for Labour – people leaving Labour to vote Green is OK, as they’re coalition partners next government.
<q>That’s a rather foolish presumption to make – there is no constitutional or practical reason why the Greens should do any such thing, as opposed to doing nothing more than guaranteeing a Labour minority government confidence and supply, and everything else contingent on case-by-case negotiations. I know it’s not a popular thing to say around here, but it’s about time both Labour and National got house trained out of their FPP born to rule habits, for once and for all.
This, this, and this again! (Some sort of record Craig: I agree with every single word you say.) My Green vote is not a vote for Labour dressed as a tree.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Indeed, I think it’s far more relevant that Jacinda managed to reduce the incumbent’s majority despite the overall drop in votes for the Labour Party.
I think she'd have taken back the electorate if the incumbent wasn't as (ahem) popular and competent as Nikki Kaye is. She has an effective electorate office and she's doing the business.
But can we all agree that the fundamental barrier to an Ardern-led party is that she's not standing for the leadership?
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Absolutely. They don't even need to do that - they can give Labour their support on the initial confidence vote, and leave all else up for negotiation.
I don't think this would happen with Robertson/Cunliffe but if Labour elected Shane Jones, it might come down to that.
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Henry Barnard, in reply to
But can we all agree that the fundamental barrier to an Ardern-led party is that she’s not standing for the leadership?
Yes. And this time the hustings will be solo affairs, unencumbered by a running mate. The deputy leader will still be selected by caucus once the leader has been elected.
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