Hard News: Prospects
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Tom: AFAIK, no newspaper has published a poll on it. Ditto Mangere. Which is a shame, really.
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Whose prostate are we talking about?
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Not mine, I reassure you..
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Today Helen Clark and John Key had their final rallies and walkabouts of the campaign, drawing dozens - possibly even hundreds - of followers.
Meanwhile ...
Thousands of people thronged the capital's central business district today for the inaugural Wellington Boobs on Bikes parade.
Two Tits beats Two Ticks.
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I still think we're fucked. Sigh.
Danielle, sweetie, get out there, do the right thing, and help to push NZ First over 5% -- and maybe you won't be fucked after all.
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Danielle, sweetie, get out there, do the right thing, and help to push NZ First over 5%
<holds knitting needles aloft> To the Henderson RSA! Who's with me?
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Depending on Ron Mark.
GRN 13 13
JAP 01 01
LAB 43 41
MĀP 4+ 4+
NZF -- 05
UFY 02 02
NAT 52 49
ACT 05 05TOT 120+ either way. NZF just happens to steal 3 N and 2 L, but could be 1 Green instead of a Nat.
57-59 + Māori, or 55-56 + Māori + NZF. Hung either way, really.
Labor maybe pulls more Māori vote and pushes the overhang by
one. National maybe hangs on to more of the Act vote, but I think that lot are going home. Māori maybe wins 5, 6, or even 7, pushing the threshold. None of that can change the balance. -
A S,
Here is a question - anyone know what is happening in the Rimutaka electorate? How rich would it be for Winston to get back in on Ron Mark's back!
According to ipredict, his chances are somewhere between slim and none. As close to a poll as I've seen anywhere:
https://www.ipredict.co.nz/Main.php?do=stock_detail&stock=RIMUTAKA.MARK
Will be interesting to watch nonetheless.
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Pete,
I reckon John Key is going to warm to the job and grow more decisive. He's got that reputation of having an excellent compass but no keel but I think he'll come right.
I hate to think of Gerry Brownlee but every time he annoys me I'll light a candle for the probability that that awful Winston is toast - I worked in a bar a long time ago and got to spit in his drink...
Please don't screw up ACC - it's not perfect but it's a damn good idea.
Can I join the millions of others in saying that the US election has put us in the shade so much that we all look like we are playing, as Umaga put it, Tiddlywinks?
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Just watched final election interview on Alt TV. Oliver Driver did a great job interviewing Helen Clark. Better questions, more informative, more open than the other staged managed ones. I hope they will both be around for more long interviews next interviews.
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Just watched final election interview on Alt TV. Oliver Driver did a great job interviewing Helen Clark. Better questions, more informative, more open than the other staged managed ones. I hope they will both be around for more long interviews next election.
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Hilary: Oliver is a great interviewer isn't he? Just watched him with Winston and it was very well done too except the Part 1 wouldn't run.
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Not sure Craig but while you're there check that prostate.
;-)Steve: As I don't intend to call people who don't vote the way I like "stupid", there's no foreign objects up my arse. Seriously, if the Government does change tomorrow I really hope there's going to be a little more grace on display than there was in the audience for McCain's concession.
Danielle, sweetie, get out there, do the right thing, and help to push NZ First over 5% -- and maybe you won't be fucked after all.
Veronica: As I said on another thread, anyone who is thinking of casting a "strategic vote" for Winston First deserves everything they get. If only the rest of us weren't required to live with it as well. What do you think is the right price for a fourth term -- a pinch of the racist immigration policy, the sight of Ron Mark creaming his pants as more civil liberties and due process get shat on and flushed down the crapper, the privatization of Kiwibank? What?
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Craig regarding your extended middle finger and reaction to "Kat's" hyperbolic discourse about a stupid country deserving a right-wing government: don't be too precious, there must be a hundred comments a day to this effect directed against Labour between KB and Your Views.
So fucking what, red? Two wrongs don't make a right, and two morons don't even make a decent half-wit.
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I prefer to protest politely. But its interesting that National's crowd wouldn't even tolerate that.
And finally, I guess our definitions of "politely" are different, but I don't go to meeting and try to drown people out with loud hailers. And if I did, I wouldn't expect a particularly friendly reception from anyone I tried it on either.
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Well. I was just chatting with Helen, our esteemed PM, about my prediction, she figures 38.7% against my 38% but was , visibly, apprehensive about my suggestion of a tactical vote for NZF. Trotter agrees with a tactical Winston vote (well he would eh). If you're in Epsom go National, however wrong it seems, it will kill ACT and the yellow peril we know as dancing Rodney. It's gonna be tight folks but we are in with a chance. Be smart, think before you vote. Good luck Labour and may the force be with you, as it were.
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WH,
Nice post Russell.
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Time again to throw in a few thoughts. I completely disagree with your rosy assessment of Clark legacy. She is the most poisonous politician since Muldoon and arguably rivals him.
You dont see a ringing endorsement of state assistance when the state house bred kid made good beats the boarding schooled child of a rich landowner?
National & Winnie introduced a super scheme in the nineties and Labour opposed it for political reasons. It kept the money in individual accounts rather than the states. So they win now brownie points from history.
Gould identifies productivity growth as being the most important thing to aim for. It trumps working longer as it raises per capita income. And this government has broken the positive trend in productivity growth that started in 1993 after the National government solved the last financial crisis they were left with by a Clark government.Gould is right that the high interest rates and over valued exchange rates have held NZ back. Both major parties bear responsibility for that poor strategy. They should fear inflation less now and reduce interest rates to US/UK levels.
Key is a pragmatist. Ideology does not win in currency markets. decisiveness and practicality does. he is not going to be blinded by any ideological model but is going to do what works. Which is why you see investment in New Zealand and a willingness to spend money on infrastructure.
Nothing Cullen did broke New Zealand. It was just the slow decline brought about by the owner stripping too much cash out of a business over the long term.
The failure to rein in LAQC was part of the cause of the real estate boom. National will deal with the bust and cretins will be accusing them in future of hard right policies rather than dealing with the mess Clark and ilk created. Just like the last time National took over from Labour.
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Fark.
Can't sleep.
Just like a few days back.This whole political junkie thing, it's very xkcd.
Stupid one-track-mind-ism.
Still, at least there's some bargains going at predictmarkets.net
Buy low, sell high, have more patience than I.
At least it's not real money.Oh, wait, I'm +50k. Damn it, it's not real money.
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Hi sage. I'd rather strongly debate several of your points, but I think it's proper to steer clear of anything that looks like an exhortation to vote a particular way, it now being Election Day.
I'd be grateful if everyone did the same until the polls close.
But: I think reports from polling places etc would be fun.
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Indeed RB, but I don't think it would be breaking electoral law to quote from my Electoral Act-cmpliant 180 Seconds piece this week:
__The tumult and the shouting dies;
The Captains and the Kings depart:
Still stands thine anceint sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget — lest we forget!__There’s a bit more tumult and shouting to go, this Election Day. As the polls are still open until seven o’clock, it would be inappropriate and pointless to comment on the domestic political week that was. Except to say, if you haven’t voted yet haul arse and exercise your basic political right — and responsibility — as a citizen. After Public Address Radio, naturally.
That's Public Address Radio, five o'clock today on Radio Live. :) Ans as Russell said, whether I agree with you or not, mad respect not only to those who are getting off their arses to vote, but everyone who has participated in the practical work of democracy.
But how could I check out without a final quote from The Standard:
The site now has comments off until after voting stops at 7pm this evening.
The explanation for this state of unusual state of affairs is in this post. But essentially some wingnut is sure to complain to the electoral commission in a pathetic attempt to highlight electoral law. They’ve done it before, so we will be far more compliant than required.
Sigh...
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I'll be voting this evening, at a booth just round the corner from my house, on my way home from work. Then, after dinner, I'll put on a DVD - Pink Floyd's "Pulse" should be right.
On Sunday morning, I'll turn on the radio, to hear the worst - I'm too old to stand the drawn out torture of the election results. -
That's Public Address Radio, five o'clock today on Radio Live. :) Ans as Russell said, whether I agree with you or not, mad respect not only to those who are getting off their arses to vote, but everyone who has participated in the practical work of democracy.
One thing I really liked about our spin doctors' lunch for tonight's show was that it humanised the politics, and underlined that reasonable people can disagree.
Also, that those guys genuinely felt their own lapses when I asked them about regrets in the job. It was enlightening and enjoyable.
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Well today has dawned bright and sunny - hopefully to dispel my gloomy prediction upthread
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It will be interesting to see how the 'get out the overseas vote' campaign has gone. Given, I assume, hundreds of thousands of potentially eligible NZ voters overseas there's the chance they'll effect the outcome.
Anyone know at what point they're counted? As far as I know the diplomatic posts allow voting until this evening, so it'll be a while before they're all back in NZ.
In addition overseas votes could be faxed or mailed directly back to Wellington.
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