Hard News: Life Goes On
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I'm always amazed that there are any liberals still living in the USofA, I'd have fled screaming years ago.
But - to use the same point I used earlier, in a different direction - it's their home. (And a lot of it is fantastic.)
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He was a man who played by own rules. A maverick. A hero. And now he had less than two weeks to destroy his enemy and save the world. John McCain is... "Screwed." Only in theatres.
Heh. Didn't the guy who did all those voiceovers just die? How will they introduce his replacement? 'In a world without that guy who did the voiceovers... only one man could take his place...'
I'm stunned that Obama is ahead in the polls. I am trying not to become complacent. It could still all go horribly wrong! Wrong I say!
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I take that to mean your next coffee maker will be so large as to require its own room.
Confession: I did download Google Sketchup .
:) Did the same for the computer. So many wires, so little space.
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Didn't the guy who did all those voiceovers just die? How will they introduce his replacement? 'In a world without that guy who did the voiceovers... only one man could take his place...'
Heh yourself. I think it was slimy Ben Elton who did a pretty good piece about voiceover man at the dairy: "I'm the man who wants a bag of carrots and a packet of crisps..." - done in the voice of course.
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The Cullen Fund isn't there to prop up our economy, it's there to ensure that we can afford to have an aging, retired population in 20, 30, 40 years' time. Propping up NZ's under-performing markets isn't compatible with that goal.
That's certainly been my understanding. Forecast growth in dependency/worker ratios means we either pay more for benefits or we require people to save more; it is a zero-sum game isn't it?
But then if our problem is also about growth, is relying on foreign capital alone going work? I don't see how that doesn't put pressure on the interest and exchange rates and on the balance of payments? Key's talked about PPPs, or at least hinted at them, I understand that it leverage's whatever modest funds government might have but the experience in Australia is mixed plus there's a growing body of commentary that suggests the model's broken - at least the Macquarie model anyway.
What to do?
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It's kind of weird to think that the NZ Super Fund has enough money to buy the entire New Zealand sharemarket. That just highlights how small we are. "We're a tiny market that matters not a damn on the world stage." is what I said earlier so we agree on that.
As I've also said, National are silly if they think the fund should divest itself of international shares now in order to have a 40% NZ shareholding. I've really been arguing my own version - that directing 40% of new contributions into the NZ market for the next few years would not be a bad thing. I myself have been able to buy a few undervalued share this past fortnight.
But anyhoo .... "The Cullen Fund isn't there to prop up our economy" Yes, but imagine what could have been. Imagine if the Super Fund owned Telecom, Rail, BNZ, Air NZ, V/42 Below, NavMan, and Watties. We might have decent broadband, electric trains, kiwibank, an airline that serviced all parts of NZ, an international beverage brand, and crops grown in NZ again.
Why is it that when our businesses reach a certain size they get sold off? What's holding us back? Often the answer is that our businesses are undercapitalised, that our infrastructure is under capitalised. Well, we've got a few lean years ahead of us then if we're waiting for the international markets to come knocking.
Unless Warren Buffet thinks "What? You mean I can buy two islands for the price of one?"
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I'm stunned that Obama is ahead in the polls. I am trying not to become complacent. It could still all go horribly wrong! Wrong I say!
Rush Limbaugh claims it's all part of his cunning plan. Whether he actually believes it ('Obama is up in the Polls because my listeners are lying to the pollsters to confound them') or is just saying it to keep hope alive I'm not sure.
Actually, check that. I don't think anyone believes it, except the imbecilic fringe.What to do?
Just wait. The answers are all here, someone will be along shortly.
: )
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But anyhoo .... "The Cullen Fund isn't there to prop up our economy" Yes, but imagine what could have been. Imagine if the Super Fund owned Telecom, Rail, BNZ, Air NZ, V/42 Below, NavMan, and Watties. We might have decent broadband, electric trains, kiwibank, an airline that serviced all parts of NZ, an international beverage brand, and crops grown in NZ again.
Personally, the Cullen Fund is one of the few things that I'm quite mercenary about.
I don't want it to invest in things of dubious morality (though I note getting agreement on what those things are isn't necessarily easy), after that, I want it make as much money as possible.
I only want it to invest in NZ companies if the companies are going to make lots of money. Otherwise I want it overseas getting big bucks out of selling oil or cars or toys or facebook or whatever.
That's my future superannuation jersey you're wearing, after all.
If John Key invests 40% of it in the NZ market, pushing the prices up artificially, and then the market collapses back down once it settles down again, and therefore it loses a couple of billion, pissed I'd be I tell ya.
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I'm stunned that Obama is ahead in the polls. I am trying not to become complacent. It could still all go horribly wrong! Wrong I say!
The smart thing the Obama campaign is doing already is locking in that polling by getting hundreds of thousands of people, particularly in swing states, to vote early.
That takes any last-minute dirty tricks out of the play and helps nullify the coming wave of Republican voter-suppression antics. The early indications -- ie: lots of black folks voting -- are promising.
But check this report from an AmericaBlog reader (their asterisks):
A friend was telling me about calling people in Northern Fla. to ask how they're voting.
One woman had to ask her husband (first tipoff, ask her husband?)... the response was "We're voting for the ni---r"
That kinda says something about the repugnican ticket. These people still refer to Obama as 'the ni---r', but they're going to vote for him anyway.
Wow.
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Why is it that when our businesses reach a certain size they get sold off? What's holding us back? Often the answer is that our businesses are undercapitalised, that our infrastructure is under capitalised. Well, we've got a few lean years ahead of us then if we're waiting for the international markets to come knocking.
Joe & Jane Kiwi still haven't forgotten Black Monday, although that partly relates to inexperience and naivety on their part. The bankruptcy of DFC was another major factor. And Fay Richwhite's Gekkoism with the likes of TranzRail & Telecom certainly didn't help much either.
I believe KiwiSaver, rather than the Cullen Fund, will be the eventual ice breaker for the NZX - think of it as sharemarket investment for the non-investor, maybe even the anti-investor as well. That is, if the Dancing Cossacks don't sack and plunder it.
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One woman had to ask her husband (first tipoff, ask her husband?)... the response was "We're voting for the ni*r"
My husband and I have been making 'can you believe this shit?' jokes about that one for a day or two. I can't work out whether it's more horrifying than funny, more funny than horrifying, or just generally too gobsmacking to be either. :)
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Russell: That story comes from a post on fivethirtyeight, about Western Pa. It's provenance has since been confirmed, although I'm tempted to think it's apocryphal, despite my dim view of attitudes towards race in this part of the US.
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Why is it that when our businesses reach a certain size they get sold off?
My pet harangue-people-when-drunk theory is that New Zealanders have a very high personal discount rate. This manifests in she'll be right, bodged repairs, deferred maintenance, houses that fall apart, all sorts of short term thinking. When the average punter in NZ is offered a price by a foreign buyer, they take it, because they cannot imagine waiting 5 years for a better return. We are Esau.
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I believe KiwiSaver, rather than the Cullen Fund, will be the eventual ice breaker for the NZX - think of it as sharemarket investment for the non-investor, maybe even the anti-investor as well.
Perhaps you're right, I tend to conflate them and I know I shouldn't. But if you are right, that makes Key's latest change of heart all the more odd, no?
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Imagine if the Super Fund owned Telecom, Rail, BNZ, Air NZ, V/42 Below, NavMan, and Watties
OK, so imagine if the super fund, worth say $13bn, is required to invest 40% in the NZX, by my maths, that's $5.2bn. So if that $5bn is spread amongst all companies on the NZX in proportion with their size, then you'd invest 9% of it in Telecom (these are all real numbers, numbers from NZX, this is really rough), means you've got around $470m invested in Telecom. Given that unbundling the local loop knocked around 20% off Telecom's value in March 2006, how willing would the government be to pass regulations that knock say $100m or 0.77% off the value of its portfolio (1.9% of its NZX portfolio)?
It's the politicisation of the Fund that worries me most, what happens when you've got 40% in NZX, and the next crash happens? You'll get some wide boy politician suggesting we should have 50% of NZSF in it, or 60%, and so it goes. Try selling back to 40% after that :)
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Given that unbundling the local loop knocked around 20% off Telecom's value in March 2006, how willing would the government be to pass regulations that knock say $100m or 0.77% off the value of its portfolio (1.9% of its NZX portfolio)?
Thanks Paul. For clearly and simply making the point I've been previously strangling.
You'll get some wide boy politician ...
Like the present leader of the Nat's perhaps?
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Brian Gaynor in the Herald back in July:
Vibrant capital markets depend on a high level of integrity and investor confidence.
Investor confidence was extremely high in the 1980s when individuals dived into the sharemarket and bought large quantities of shares in a plethora of high-flying companies including Chase, Equiticorp, Judge Corp, Robt Jones Investments, etc.
Unfortunately, after the October 1987 crash we discovered that most of these companies had little substance. It was as if these investors had bought a loaf of bread but when they got home they discovered the loaf was hollow; there was nothing inside the crust.
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Most ordinary investors in New Zealand have little confidence in our capital markets because they have been misled, pillaged and raped since the mid-1980s. They have also received almost no regulatory protection, with the Securities Commission being notably quiet during the finance company debacle.
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I'm stunned that Obama is ahead in the polls. I am trying not to become complacent. It could still all go horribly wrong! Wrong I say!
I cannot shake the feeling that, whatever happens on US election day, Americans and the rest of the world are in for either
a) another four to eight years of the same useless bombast, possibly accompanied by the end of the world as we know it
b) heartbreaking disillusionment as the new President proves to be just as constrained by the US system as his 'progressive' forebears. -
conspiracy theory that Rupert Murdoch was forcing his newspapers to take a pro-Iraq editorial line, using the truly eccentric methodology of looking at editorials on the subject . It simply wasn't true -- at least in New Zealand
Rupert Murdoch doesn't own any papers in NZ.
Was this a while ago?
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'In a world without that guy who did the voiceovers... '
I was impressed to learn that he had come up with that catchphrase himself. Now there's cultural influence! Along those lines, "Business time" must be one of our most successful exports (other than corrupting the Aussies into doing the Kylie raised inflexion thing at the end of their sentences).
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John, to be fair I don't think Key was talking about divesting - and I heard him say something about letting the fund Guardians decide how long to take to reach that 40% target - which makes a mockery of any short term benefits. Sounds decisive I guess. Just typical campaigning talk.
I'm hoping voters make a connection in their own understanding with raiding long-term investment to subsidise short-term consumerism, as if that pattern isn't part of what got us into this pickle. I know spending our way out of a recession sounds more fun..
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John, to be fair I don't think Key was talking about divesting - and I heard him say something about letting the fund Guardians decide how long to take to reach that 40% target - which makes a mockery of any short term benefits. Sounds decisive I guess. Just typical campaigning talk.
Even if they did take their time reaching the target, it would still have an impact on share prices.
Soon as the government passed the law or announced the policy, all share prices in NZ would jump about 10% or so, in anticipation.
Even if they then floated down, it'd jump again every time they threw half a billion dollars at something or other. It's just hard to invest that much money in a small stock market without bumping up the prices for yourself.
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Kyle, you're right. I wasn't thinking clearly enough about who those short term benefits would be for - those who play the market.
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__conspiracy theory that Rupert Murdoch was forcing his newspapers to take a pro-Iraq editorial line, using the truly eccentric methodology of looking at editorials on the subject . It simply wasn't true -- at least in New Zealand__
Rupert Murdoch doesn't own any papers in NZ.
Was this a while ago?2003, shortly before the commencement of hostilities in Iraq (and when News Ltd had a large stake in INL, whose papers are now owned by Fairfax).
Roy Greenslade wrote a Guardian column alleging that Murdoch had ordered his newspaper editors the world over to back the war. He appeared to have pulled his evidence for this claim out of his liberal ass.
This is the relevant part of the Mediawatch script I wrote around it:
In Monday's edition of The Guardian, columnist Roy Greenslade alleged that Rupert Murdoch had instructed the editors of his 175 newspapers around the world - from the Times, to the Australian and the New York Post - that their editorial stance should support war in Iraq.
After conducting what he said was an "exhaustive survey" of Murdoch's highest-selling and most influential papers, Greenslade said it was clear to him that all were "singing from the same hymn sheet". Some were softer than others, he said, but: "Their master's voice has never been questioned."
The malign proprietorial influence extended even to these shores, where, he said, "Murdoch's papers are eager to push readers and politicians towards belligerence." He quoted an editorial in Wellington's Dominion Post, which argued against what it described as the "charade" of "appeasement".
So does the evidence here support Greenslade's theory? No. We conducted our own, somewhat exhaustive, survey of editorials in New Zealand newspapers published by INL, in which Murdoch's News Limited has a 49 per cent stake. We concluded that editors were taking their own counsel, rather than that of Mr Murdoch.
By far the most hawkish of the INL papers has been The Press in Christchurch, which this week said the United Nations faced irrelevance if it did not opt for military action. The Dominion Post has been more circumspect and the Waikato Times and Sunday Star Times have been doubters.
I noted in the interview that followed that the Dom Post editorial Greenslade quoted actually appeared in The Press.
If there was a pattern, it was that newspapers tended to back their own governments' line.
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Stephen:
Idiot, why do you persist in this delusional belief that only rich people own shares?
Not "only", but certainly overwhelmingly. Your investments don't disprove the thesis one iota, any more than the old Merkin / Libertarian chestnut of one person having "pulled themselves up by their bootstraps" and overcome poverty to become successful "proves" that inequality does not impose institutional barriers to success.
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