Hard News: Christchurch: Is "quite good" good enough?
459 Responses
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James Norcliffe, in reply to
We decided some time ago that the safest place to live in New Zealand is Hobart.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
I don’t buy the idea that Maori had experienced major earthquakes in Chch, or that that was why they were only living here on an itinerant basis.
I think if you take this as a guide to frequency of fault activity it would be hard to believe Maori had no experience of earthquake in the region.
The Hope and Alpine faults are the most active at 135 and 100-300 repeat times respectively. There is a probability of 65% of a quake in the next 50 years. Damage likely to cover most of the region including infrastructure and lifelines.
…Major concerns are the immediate destruction with no effective warning, evacuation, casualty treatment and loss of services. There is a long time-frame for recovery and normality, months or years. Christchurch has 150 year return cycle for a MM 7.5 to 8 quake and 1000 years fro a MM 9 quake.Here
This was written in 2005, note the "probability of 65% of a quake in the next 50 years." It was not that unexpected and some analysts would say the quake was "overdue"As for the Alpine Fault itself, when that goes it is likely to be of about magnitude 8. This fault is believed to have last moved in about 1717 and a new quake is arguably overdue.
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Lilith __, in reply to
I think if you take this as a guide to frequency of fault activity it would be hard to believe Maori had no experience of earthquake in the region.
Yet Maori lived in the Wellington and Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay regions. I believe they may well have experienced earthquakes here in Canterbury. And Kaiapoi, site of a major Maori settlement, was very hard hit in our 4/09/10 quake.
Avoiding the Chch area due to quakes just seems implausible to me.
Edit: my last comment wasn't well worded. What I meant was that I didn't think quakes had driven Maori settlement from Chch.
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Hebe, in reply to
Shock waves from an eruption will break windows and flatten buildings, fiery fountains of lava will set structures and trees ablaze, and base surges - a ground-hugging, deadly mixture of steam and solid particles - will envelop everything within a 5km radius. All that on Day One.
The council's hazards page also predicts related earthquakes and tsunami. There's an 8% chance of an eruption taking place in anyone's (80 year) lifespan. Which sounds way too fucking likely for comfort.'Kinell. Grabaseat will be busy. Make sure your doombox is portable.
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Sacha, in reply to
There's an 8% chance of an eruption taking place in anyone's (80 year) lifespan. Which sounds way too fucking likely for comfort.
Not guaranteeing my maths at all, but that seems like about once every couple of centuries. Eeek.
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Not that I'm panicking but is anywhere in NZ safe? Didn't I hear Northland with its sandstone foundation would be safe .
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BenWilson, in reply to
I reckon that if we are going to stay here we must sit lightly on the land in every way.
That's one approach. Another is to directly engineer solutions to overcome the geographic troubles, possibly at great expense.
Nothing can stop that: 20 seconds and it's gone.
Not necessarily. If it's raised enough, it could be entirely unaffected. In fact, if liquefaction is constantly happening, it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.
ETA: Since mentioning Amsterdam is popular when discussing well planned transport, it's worthwhile remembering that half of their country would be flooded if it weren't protected by enormous earthworks. The Dutch engineered the solutions to their swampy little country, and IIRC, the Dam is full of trams.
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Sacha, in reply to
I've heard Northland is clear.
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Richard Aston, in reply to
I’ve heard Northland is clear.
Great I have a few NgaPuhi mates should be sweet then.
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Islander, in reply to
Not that I’m panicking but is anywhere in NZ safe?
Oamaru....
Maori didnt build in Otautahi; Kaiapoi was built relatively late. Maori settled in Akaroa and Lyttelton areas, places with good harbours and stable ground (comparatively.) Swamps werent esteemed as living places though they did have other attractions - which is why ChCh was a fowling & eeling area, seasonally occupied-
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
Human era...
Didn’t I hear Northland with its sandstone foundation would be safe...
More than likely, at least a millennia (or two), and you'll be able to look for traces of previous ruling species who also thought they were in a safe area (or era)...
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
Bogside...
fowling & eeling...
These should be suburb names!
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Hebe, in reply to
Nothing can stop that: 20 seconds and it's gone.
Not necessarily. If it's raised enough, it could be entirely unaffected. In fact, if liquefaction is constantly happening, it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.I cannot believe that's possible having experienced the big quakes. Seeing the tidy road around the corner turn into a roaring torrent of mud and debris up to the top of a large SUV's wheels; standing in the school field basically on top of the fault and feeling and hearing the ground roar, heave, groan and howl more or less constantly for two hours, with the smash! of another quake at odd intervals. I cannot now believe that anything humanity can build will withstand those forces. Maybe I'm traumatised still and it is possible; I don't know.
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
marsh mellow...
...it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.
at last - the flying car
or hoverbelt! -
Sacha, in reply to
I cannot now believe that anything humanity can build will withstand those forces
Seems reasonable. Idea is to make em easiest to fix/rebuild afterwards. Though that's all relative.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
at last – the flying car
A friend has been working on the Martin Jetpack for years now and all through the earthquakes without too much inconvenience, for it has of course been built and refined down in Chch. So maybe a flying car is not too far off. :)
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Lilith __, in reply to
Idea is to make em easiest to fix/rebuild afterwards. Though that’s all relative.
“Ground repair”: making the ground more compacted and therefore stronger, can be done, with enough money. There is the much touted success of Pegasus Town relative to its neighbours in the earthquakes, as a result of major groundworks prior to building.
I think Ben is right: now we know what the risks are, we can mitigate them.
PS: that vibro-flotation sounds very relaxing. Perhaps in combination with a G & T. :-)
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Found ECan's public transport plan for the region, though I have no idea how this fits with the other transport plans from the Chch City Council and CERA.
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Lilith __, in reply to
ECan’s public transport plan
Something more accessible here. 2 days to go for anyone else wanting to give feedback (online feedback form, just follow my link).
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Hebe, in reply to
You want them to talk to each other? Can't be done.
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Sacha, in reply to
crikey, that's another layer.
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Sacha, in reply to
One party will probably pick up the bullhorn and tell the others how it will be. You can guess which one..
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Lilith __, in reply to
crikey, that’s another layer
The layer that runs the actual buses :-)
(it's basically ECan) -
BenWilson, in reply to
I think Ben is right: now we know what the risks are, we can mitigate them.
It's a possibility, anyway. I don't really have an opinion about whether it's appropriate. It would be appropriate to research it, is the most I'd say.
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Hebe, in reply to
the much touted success of Pegasus Town relative to its neighbours in the earthquakes, as a result of major groundworks prior to building
Pegasus land has yet to convince me; it's a good distance from the faults that have gone so far. It would be interesting to see what happens to that land if the Kaiapoi fault pops (the biggest fault in the area, which is just off the coast by Pegasus).
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