Cracker: Another Capital Idea...
285 Responses
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Damian Christie, in reply to
Sorry, Damian, you can't change the terms after the event.
Jesus, it's good to see everyone takes this bet of a beer so seriously. I'll pay, I'll pay! God knows I earn enough... and also if it's a beer with Russell, it's tax deductible.
BUT. Far be it from me to know better what I meant by my words than you, but obviously I never suggested that Labour's announcement would get No Coverage At All. That would be ridiculous. And working on Q+A, I knew at the time I wrote that exactly what we would be doing the following weekend.
With respect to Q+A, it isn't watched by a great many people. The Nation, far fewer. As our only political shows, they were always going to cover the announcement, they'd have been scratching for content otherwise. Perhaps I should've put a giant * there to say "apart from blogs, and Q+A...". There was a 6pm track on Thursday, of course, and a number of pieces in the paper.
However from what I can see, there were more pieces about CGT in the week before the announcement than there have been since. By definition, all the pieces before the announcement were missing Labour's voice. Again, Labour MPs were crying foul about being 'upstaged' by Hone. The question is, would Labour have got more coverage with its own people doing the talking if they hadn't have leaked this? I still think the answer is yes.
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Matthew Poole, in reply to
2/3 of $140k is $92,400. You’ve just about agreed with my argument there – which is (and not many people seem to read this part), that a family with an income of $100k is not as well off as some would think
OK, so my very hasty maths was very off. They're nowhere near $90k. If they were actually on 2/3 of our income, they would be very much less hand-to-mouth than they are. Some of that is historic low incomes on both sides that have resulted in a lot of debt for things like car repairs, appliances, etc, that are still being paid down several years later.
So, no, still not agreeing with your argument, sorry. I just didn't do my maths very carefully before I posted.
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
Damian, that's not how I read your post, and I certainly don't care about beer (Asahi or otherwise). So won't argue the point any more. But in our NZ political tradition of self interest, a $5000 tax free threshold would make an big difference to me, and I think selling off more of our productive assets to overseas interests will mean higher future electricity prices for me and my family and increased private debt for future generations. So I like this CGT policy and would have liked it if more NZers had seen the positive implications. But I am used people not thinking like me.
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
But I am used people not thinking like me.
Time to get... useder, I fear. But hey, we're here to change minds after all. It's just about the only worthwhile thing there is.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
The question is, would Labour have got more coverage with its own people doing the talking if they hadn’t have leaked this? I still think the answer is yes.
Well, with the usual caveats in place the latest One News poll would strongly suggest that a frightfully clever media strategy that makes folks "inside the Beltway" cum in their pants doesn't always translate into smart politics. If I was of a left-ward persuasion and entirely convinced that CGT was a good thing, of course I'd be bloody supporting the party whose leader was making the case while Phil Goff and David Cunliffe were doing some burlesque cock-tease routine for the Press Gallery.
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
At least you and me agree on many things, Giovanni. That's nice. (I should remember to proof read before posting.) Craig and I might even agree, on rare occasions.
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BenWilson, in reply to
It's just about the only worthwhile thing there is.
When one is writing, definitely so. Polls bounce around for all sorts of reasons. But the steady pressure of a good idea building support is lasting. No one is going to remember the ins and outs of how the information about the CGT came out in September - they will be far more likely to be simply considering it on its merits, which are many. One of the biggest merits is that it is a decisive change, a clear alternative to the National line of selling off assets. I think NZers have been wanting this from Labour since Clark resigned. To be even discussing the merits of CGT is a big shift away from discussing the benefits of selling assets. Labour has seized control of the debate.
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
In 1975, entranced by Muldoon and his whiteboard presentation, the people voted out compulsory superannuation. Retrospectively, that was a really stupid economic thing to do, and three decades later we have to tackle it again. People trusted Muldoon then just as people trust that nice Mr Key now. Logic doesn't really come into it (except on this forum).
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BenWilson, in reply to
People trusted Muldoon then just as people trust that nice Mr Key now. Logic doesn't really come into it (except on this forum).
36 years later, though, we get to see the outcome of Muldoon's path - the colossal pension bill, on which elderly people still subsist. We also get to see how it fared for Australia over the last 20 years: From wiki:
After more than a decade of compulsory contributions, Australian workers have over $1.28 trillion[3] in superannuation assets. Australians now have more money invested in managed funds per capita than any other economy.[4]
That is one fuck of a lot of money funding retirement in Australia, and it didn't cost the government anything, other than the political will to push it through.
Perhaps Labour should be asking Keating for some tips about how he sold the idea.
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Sacha, in reply to
Labour MPs were crying foul about being 'upstaged' by Hone
Yeah, who would have imagined that scheduling a major policy release on a day Hone already had media oxygen could be a problem?
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Sacha, in reply to
Perhaps Labour should be asking Keating for some tips about how he sold the idea.
On those lines, it's interesting comparing the two quoted spokespeople from that Herald story.
But Mr Goff said the public should not rely on the results of one poll.
"The poll was taken before the announcement of the tax. Certainly there had been discussion in the media over that period of time," he told Radio New Zealand this morning.
Mr Goff rejected the poor showing was a response to the party's controversial tax, saying at public meetings the policy had been well received once people were aware of the finer details.
"I'm confident Labour will do a lot better than those polls suggest," he told Newstalk ZB.
"A few months before the 1996 election Helen Clark was on 1 per cent."
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Labour's finance spokesman, David Cunliffe, also said he did not consider the poll a solid verdict on the tax policy package.
"Polls go up, polls come down. I note this was taken before the announcement and after the Government had a week to try and kick the crap out of [a capital gains tax] before we actually talked about it."
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Sacha, in reply to
No one is going to remember the ins and outs of how the information about the CGT came out in September - they will be far more likely to be simply considering it on its merits, which are many.
Sadly I'm inclined to agree with Hilary that it won't be a rational decision. More about trust and confidence. And any political party's communicators and strategists should know that.
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
Sadly I'm inclined to agree with Hilary that it won't be a rational decision. More about trust and confidence.
Of course it will be rational. It is not irrational to stay the course with a new government three years into its mandate, when it has little to be judged on. It's also not irrational to distrust a breaking of the neoliberal consensus when it is promoted by one of the least apologetic proponents of Douglas' reforms. Those are the two mountains that Labour has to climb. But I hope they won't be demoralised by this poll. It just shows how much work they have to do, not that the plan has failed or that the idea was wrong.
It's up to them to push on between now and November, and to project the image of a capable and committed caucus united behind the project. Goff is still a major liability and if he has to be the face of the new policy on his own both Labour and the policy will be dead.
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No one is going to remember the ins and outs of how the information about the CGT came out in September – they will be far more likely to be simply considering it on its merits, which are many.
I agree, absolutely. And the whole beer-bet-leak-issue thing was only a minor aside, simply because I thought Phil was looking stupid at the time acting coy after an intentional leak, and I figured it would backfire. As Craig notes, the importance of all of which might just be limited to a bunch of jiz-panted beltway types.
And second, the main point in my original post was that CGT is a good idea. Two National MPs have since agreed on this with me. Not publicly of course.
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Well, with the usual caveats in place the latest One News poll would strongly suggest that a frightfully clever media strategy that makes folks “inside the Beltway” cum in their pants doesn’t always translate into smart politics. If I was of a left-ward persuasion and entirely convinced that CGT was a good thing, of course I’d be bloody supporting the party whose leader was making the case while Phil Goff and David Cunliffe were doing some burlesque cock-tease routine for the Press Gallery.
I suspect that Labour will be disappointed with the poll, but I find the idea that you’d get a poll bump right after saying you’ll raise taxes weird. Raising taxes isn’t the bit that people will like, it’s what you’ll spend the money on that will attract voters.
I’m picking their next big announcement will be something on chch earthquake that addresses the gaps that David and others have raised.
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Sacha, in reply to
I’m picking their next big announcement will be something on chch earthquake that addresses the gaps that David and others have raised.
A competent opposition might do that.
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Andrew C, in reply to
super late, but for Rich:
You wanna see the people already paying by far the lion’s share of the tax all fuck off overseas?
Yes.
cheap shot, but still want to?
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A competent opposition might do that.
Yeah. Even odds at this stage?
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I’ve heard that crap before from Tories.
Where they went wrong was that they shouldn’t just have beaten him, but beaten him until he pulled all the cash out of his bank accounts and signed over his house and car. Then left him naked in a ditch.
Because all those dollars he had to nicely buy drinks had been stolen from the other nine guys, and in imaginary-righty land, the only law is violence.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
cheap shot, but still want to?
Why not? I'll happily buy drinks for my mates when they can't pay their way, because we're all in this together. It's a social(ist) thing.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
cheap shot, but still want to?
Snopes.com calls bullshit. So do most of the respondents in that 'cheap shot' post.
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That is such a nasty little piece of propaganda. Our taxes buy beer, huh? Recreational, frivolous, not especially healthful? And the wealthy are subject to physical violence?
It would be more honest to set the story somewhere like a community center with a sliding scale entry fee and a 9:30pm dinner of baked beans every night.
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"Aren't you having any baked beans?" asked Four.
"Nah", said Ten. "I don't like waiting till 9:30 to eat. I had a nice piece of fish and some salad earlier. I'm not here for the baked beans, I'm here for the company."
Nine was a little less sanguine. "I don't like baked beans so I had fish too. But it was quite expensive. The fees here should be lower."
One concentrated on her baked beans and wondered what liking had to do with anything.
One week the fee scale had been adjusted up a bit at the top end and down a bit at the bottom.
"Blech", said Eight.
Two toyed briefly with the idea of observing that the servings of baked beans were somewhat smaller than they used to be, but decided it would ruin the mood.
"I might start going to a different community center," said Ten thoughtfully.
"Which one?" asked Seven. "The next one over has even higher fees at the top end. They do have macaroni cheese on Fridays, though."
"I quite like the look of the one on the other side of town," said Nine. "They have almost no fees".
Six snorted. "No ENTRY fees. You have to pay for a drink of water. You have to pay to use the toilets. It's pretty nasty."
Nine defended her choice. "They have an emergency longdrop that's free. And the pay toilets might be expensive but they are the nicest in town."
Five rolled his eyes. "You haven't noticed that it...smells a bit worse over there? Besides which, if you add up all your drinks of water and bathroom visits, have you actually saved any money?"
Nine wrote some figures on the back of a napkin and looked disgruntled. "Yeah, nah."
Ten sat for a moment. "I'm rethinking this a bit. I don't want the upper end of the scale to go up any more, in fact maybe it should come down a bit. I think I'll try to get on the community center board. Shouldn't be hard. I know a guy."
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Thread merge?
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
I’ll happily buy drinks for my mates when they can’t pay their way, because we’re all in this together. It’s a social(ist) thing.
Wears a bit thin when they not only take it for granted but drink your last beer and call you an old fool.
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Sacha, in reply to
worse when they drink all your whisky :)
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