Posts by David Hood
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Reading this thread, I get the impression there are some meta-issues floating around in the discussion of who (media/ politicians/ public) gets to decide what the story is, who gets to declare what is or is not relevant to the story, and how those borders are policed.
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National benefited from the Labour stay home, but in the Maori electorates Labour benefited from the Maori Party/ Mana even greater stay home. Some commentators have described this as Maori turning out for Labour, but I don't know that is quite the way to look at it.
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The name on the electoral roll also only had to be in "a commonly understood form" (I used to do data matching on 19th century electoral rolls, and can testify to this producing some variation in names between elections).
Keep in mind the 19th century requirements were also framed around a much lower level of literacy than today.
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Adjusting for the number of people on the roll (so as a proportion of the available electors rather than just raw numbers)
Electorates where National's vote went up:
"Hutt South" "Port Hills"Electorates where Labour's vote went up:
...Electorates where Green's vote went up:
"Helensville" "Mt Albert" "Mt Roskill"Electorates where NZ First's vote went up:
"Auckland Central" "Bay of Plenty" "Botany" "Christchurch Central"
"Christchurch East" "Clutha-Southland" "Coromandel" "Dunedin North"
"Dunedin South" "East Coast" "East Coast Bays" "Epsom"
"Hamilton East" "Hamilton West" "Helensville" "Hunua"
"Hutt South" "Ilam" "Invercargill" "Kaikōura"
"Mana" "Māngere" "Manukau East" "Manurewa"
"Maungakiekie" "Napier" "Nelson" "New Lynn"
"New Plymouth" "North Shore" "Northcote" "Northland"
"Ōtaki" "Pakuranga" "Palmerston North" "Papakura"
"Port Hills" "Rangitata" "Rangitīkei" "Rimutaka"
"Rodney" "Rongotai" "Rotorua" "Selwyn"
"Tāmaki" "Taranaki-King Country" "Taupō" "Te Atatū"
"Tukituki" "Waikato" "Waimakariri" "Wairarapa"
"Waitaki" "Wellington Central" "West Coast-Tasman" "Whanganui"
"Whangarei" "Wigram" -
thanks for that Jonathan. I've been hunting figures for the number on the rolls in 2011 this evening for figuring turnout(elections.org only has the current roll). In the end I went to the wayback machine and got the figures "approximate" to the election.
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To the best of my knowledge, specials are yet to be included, so all this is provisional until the final results, and once I grab the previous elections results this evening with a slight modification of the script, we will need to be aware of not quite comparing like with like.
Average turnout in electorates won in 2014 by a National MP 0.703
Average turnout in electorates won in 2014 by a Labour MP 0.644 -
Dismal, I got the general roll numbers for each electorate from
http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/enrolment-statistics-electorate?name=
and I had a script running through getting the vote count for each electorate linked off here
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorateindex.html
and linked them together (I've also got the party vote for each electorate at the same time, but haven't had time to do anything with that yet).
All of that said, I did muck up the initial links for a couple in the U-W section (but not Wellington Central), and a full corrected list is
1 Auckland Central 0.6147062
2 Bay of Plenty 0.7285598
3 Botany 0.6314051
4 Christchurch Central 0.6687067
5 Christchurch East 0.6747357
6 Clutha-Southland 0.7109519
7 Coromandel 0.7230737
8 Dunedin North 0.6999908
9 Dunedin South 0.7530902
10 East Coast 0.6941691
11 East Coast Bays 0.6723085
12 Epsom 0.6486282
13 Hamilton East 0.6766798
14 Hamilton West 0.6726180
15 Hauraki-Waikato 0.5206937
16 Helensville 0.7020235
17 Hunua 0.7189178
18 Hutt South 0.7270650
19 Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 0.5588218
20 Ilam 0.6917468
21 Invercargill 0.7055316
22 Kaikōura 0.7301939
23 Kelston 0.6173830
24 Mana 0.7187318
25 Māngere 0.5646660
26 Manukau East 0.5676559
27 Manurewa 0.5683573
28 Maungakiekie 0.6389404
29 Mt Albert 0.6671641
30 Mt Roskill 0.6372756
31 Napier 0.7308530
32 Nelson 0.7274589
33 New Lynn 0.6528478
34 New Plymouth 0.7101089
35 North Shore 0.6876983
36 Northcote 0.6667752
37 Northland 0.7167634
38 Ōhāriu 0.7362756
39 Ōtaki 0.7551267
40 Pakuranga 0.6750634
41 Palmerston North 0.7157678
42 Papakura 0.6633582
43 Port Hills 0.7257290
44 Rangitata 0.7276606
45 Rangitīkei 0.7344235
46 Rimutaka 0.7200514
47 Rodney 0.7407089
48 Rongotai 0.7122716
49 Rotorua 0.7096158
50 Selwyn 0.7520363
51 Tāmaki 0.7029035
52 Tāmaki Makaurau 0.4922881
53 Taranaki-King Country 0.7240330
54 Taupō 0.7110777
55 Tauranga 0.7191759
56 Te Atatū 0.6558156
57 Te Tai Hauāuru 0.5452796
58 Te Tai Tokerau 0.5549410
59 Te Tai Tonga 0.5225408
60 Tukituki 0.7217799
61 Upper Harbour 0.6328193
62 Waiariki 0.5243417
63 Waikato 0.7048646
64 Waimakariri 0.7375239
65 Wairarapa 0.7345064
66 Waitaki 0.7431510
67 Wellington Central 0.6778748
68 West Coast-Tasman 0.7341532
69 Whanganui 0.7092760
70 Whangarei 0.7217878
71 Wigram 0.6660151I will try and get the code I used (in R) up and shared, but that will probably not happen for a few days.
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One more,
23 Kelston 0.6173830It wasn't showing on the page I was data matching against last night but is there this morning. My guess is that someone missed it on the list of electorates to display as it is new. But all good now.
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Online voting would require verified paper ballot backups which people could check a) Their vote was recorded as who they voted for b) no extra votes or changed votes are on the system (recounts), and that all gets rather complicated and dangerous very quickly. I'm against it.
Here are the electorate turnouts (before the effect of specials). gold prize to Wairarapa, silver to Ōtaki, bronze to Dunedin South
1 Auckland Central 0.6147062
2 Bay of Plenty 0.7285598
3 Botany 0.6314051
4 Christchurch Central 0.6687067
5 Christchurch East 0.6747357
6 Clutha-Southland 0.7109519
7 Coromandel 0.7230737
8 Dunedin North 0.6999908
9 Dunedin South 0.7530902
10 East Coast 0.6941691
11 East Coast Bays 0.6723085
12 Epsom 0.6486282
13 Hamilton East 0.6766798
14 Hamilton West 0.6726180
15 Hauraki-Waikato 0.5206937
16 Helensville 0.7020235
17 Hunua 0.7189178
18 Hutt South 0.7270650
19 Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 0.5588218
20 Ilam 0.6917468
21 Invercargill 0.7055316
22 Kaikōura 0.7301939
23 Mana 0.7187318
24 Māngere 0.5646660
25 Manukau East 0.5676559
26 Manurewa 0.5683573
27 Maungakiekie 0.6389404
28 Mt Albert 0.6671641
29 Mt Roskill 0.6372756
30 Napier 0.7308530
31 Nelson 0.7274589
32 New Lynn 0.6528478
33 New Plymouth 0.7101089
34 North Shore 0.6876983
35 Northcote 0.6667752
36 Northland 0.7167634
37 Ōtaki 0.7551267
38 Pakuranga 0.6750634
39 Palmerston North 0.7157678
40 Papakura 0.6633582
41 Port Hills 0.7257290
42 Rangitata 0.7276606
43 Rangitīkei 0.7344235
44 Rimutaka 0.7200514
45 Rodney 0.7407089
46 Rongotai 0.7122716
47 Rotorua 0.7096158
48 Selwyn 0.7520363
49 Tāmaki 0.7029035
50 Tāmaki Makaurau 0.4922881
51 Taranaki-King Country 0.7240330
52 Taupō 0.7110777
53 Tauranga 0.7191759
54 Te Atatū 0.6558156
55 Te Tai Hauāuru 0.5452796
56 Te Tai Tokerau 0.5549410
57 Te Tai Tonga 0.5225408
58 Tukituki 0.7217799
59 Waikato 0.7101029
60 Waimakariri 0.7189314
61 Wairarapa 0.7759522
62 Waitaki 0.7431510
63 Wellington Central 0.6778748
64 West Coast-Tasman 0.7341532
65 Whanganui 0.7092760
66 Whangarei 0.7217878
67 Wigram 0.6660151 -
Lucy (and Ben and others interested) here are some long term numbers for enrolled electors and turnout
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/past-events/general-elections-1853-2011-dates-and-turnout