Posts by Ben Austin
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Speaker: The Brexlection, in reply to linger,
There has been idle chatter here and there of doing that, but think the closest they ever came was in the North East. But that was incredibly unlikely to happen for all sorts of reasons. That being said, the North East is basically more closely linked to Edinburgh than to the SE of England
There really isn't any point them doing anything as the FPTP system would consign it to stunt politics. Perhaps at best they could run in London in the next Assembly, in 2020, as there is a List component, which they could make a tilt at.
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Speaker: The Brexlection, in reply to Tom Semmens,
With respect, I think you're guilty of the same problems you've identified with the left. Coming out with "get over themselves" and "take a course in democracy 101" is exactly the same kind of sneering that you're accusing the Remain groups.
Now having lived through the referendum campaign I really don't feel like taking lectures from people who haven't. It was the most divisive campaign I've ever experienced (not that I'm particularly old or experienced) and it's left fissures in English society (let alone the wider UK) that will not easily go away. I literally had friends assaulted by Leave voters, whilst campaigning in the most Remain parts of London. That's not the kind of thing that one gets over very quickly. It poisons everything.
In many ways, the EU Ref was for England and Wales like the Scottish Indy Ref was for Scotland. I can't think of a recent New Zealand example, even though we are much more well versed with referendum campaigns than most.
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Scotland is going to be very interesting as well, if just for different reasons.
The SNP is polling well still, as it has for a few years at this point, so it is certainly possible that they take the last 3 seats held by other parties. It is also possible that the three parties actually take seats from the SNP. Some of the former Liberal Democrat seats are, comparatively, lightly held by the SNP and thus at least theoretically vulnerable. The Conservatives are also in with a shout for one or two other seats, then if their Scottish polling actually translated into seats, up to 5.
Labour still hasn't recovered from their long decline, even while the Scottish leader, Dugdale grows into the role.So I think a bad night for the SNP sees them about 50-52. A good night sees them with all 59
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Now speaking as someone who spent Saturday canvassing in the very safe Labour seat of Vauxhall for the LDs, it is winnable. But that doesn’t mean to say it is going to be won, as the snap election means that there hasn’t been time to plan a campaign. All I can really say right now is that the local MP, Kate Hoey, is very vulnerable due to her being the Labour face of Leave and a close associate of Farage after the Ref, which plays incredibly badly across the constituency, which was if not the most Remain voting area then in the top 3 across the whole UK.
Too early to tell what will happen there, but it was quite something meeting angry Labour members who were planning to defect to us. Corbyn/Hoey is a particularly awkward squeeze in a place like Vauxhall. What makes it even worse is that a lot of Corbyn’s strongest supporters were also strong Remainers and they can’t bring themselves to support Hoey either.
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It is going to be an insane election, is basically my view so far. The polling is so badly against Labour in England and Wales that, if applied on a seat by seat basis, results could be as back to the 1930s, let alone the days of Foot. Now it is almost certain that the results won't be evenly applied as Labour is extremely well embedded in many of those seats, with useful local organisations and the like. However it does give the Conservative Party a vast menu of targets with which to play around with and that must extremely exciting yet challenging.
Personally I think the PM has been very smart, from a party perspective. She's called it early enough that the Lib Dem resurgence probably won't be good enough on the ground, to regain some of the seats lost. She'll be able to squeeze a lot of Labour marginals everywhere, but especially in the latter's heartlands. She'll take a lot of the right leaning Kipper vote and activists. It's basically all win for her. What she does with that however is anyone's guess. All we know for a fact is that it won't help her a jot in negotiating with the EU27
The Lib Dems are in an awkward place really. They've got a couple of very weakly held seats they need to defend and a long list of very good targets (that they've held till 2015) and other targets which they could, if things go well, take. Which could mean that they'll fail on all fronts as they try to attack on all fronts. What we do know is that they'll have the money to campaign - they raised somewhere between £1.5-£2m since the election was called and today they estimate they'll have reached 100,000 members, which is back to the level they were in the early 1990s. So that's big. It's just whether or not they can do enough with those people and get them out working the campaign.
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Hard News: Mike Moore: A pretty ordinary…, in reply to Hugh Wilson,
I used to love Frontline! I hope it gets a showing on Netflix or the like at some point.
Back to Mike Moore, I remember hearing in the late 90s from journos that he had retained a high profile if just because he was always ready and able to supply a reaction piece for radio or the like at a moment's notice, enhanced by his possession of some form of reasonable home studio in suburban CHCH. Which must have been rarer in those pre Skype/podcasting days.
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The FT ran a story today based around an apparent increase in Uber executives seeking new employment.
_ "For employees at Uber, quitting the company often means walking away from restricted stock units or stock options worth hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars in Silicon Valley’s most highly valued private company. With Uber currently worth about $70bn, a typical middle manager position comes with RSUs worth hundreds of thousands of dollars that vest over a four-year period.“Historically, it has been incredibly difficult to recruit from Uber, which partly has to do with people being unwilling to leave their stock options on the table,” says Guillaume Champagne, president at SCGC Executive Search. “From a purely financial perspective, Uber would need to become an awful place for them to leave.”
Nevertheless, in the past few weeks, Mr Champagne has seen an increase of about 5-10 per cent in the number of people interested in leaving, particularly those who are “a bit less of a culture fit”, he says. “To be fair, people typically know what they are getting into when they join Uber. They know it is a very male-dominated, high-octane, investment banking type of culture,” he adds." _
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Assuming Labour holds Rongotai, doesn't this make Little's life a little easier? He's now got more wriggle room on his List
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Hard News: Mt Albert: Cooperating,…, in reply to Russell Brown,
Indeed. I would imagine it is probably one of those topics that they've argued about endlessly. It does take a lot of organisation and people though and maybe they just know they don't have it.
I've long wondered why they haven't copied say the Lib Dem playbook from the UK - build up a solid council presence somewhere, then use that local network which is by now used to grassroots campaigning to try and take the seat. Obviously different countries / cultures and the NZ councils tend to be a lot smaller in councillor headcount which reduces scope, but it could work, if diligently applied.
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Whoops, cut that off awkwardly.
What I meant to say is that having a solid GOTV operation is probably not something the Greens really need to have, being a Party/List vote organisation. I'm sure they could build one here and there (Wellington Central?) but that might distract/divert resources from what already works for them.