Posts by Jason Kemp
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May have answered my own question..
Had a look at the comments on the survey - which suggests it ran between 23 & 30th of July '07 - Is that right?
And BTW - comments are the best part of the survey - thanks
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The Survey is very interesting. So I can get the timeline and context
How long was the survey running and what were the dates?
It is a fast moving area - Also Are there any plans to run the same or similar survey again for companrative purposes?
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My guess is that the extra candidates in Auckland local body and the billboards may get more people to actually vote which would be a good thing.
On the rugby that piece by Inky was definitely one of the best.
There is also a wider issue which is the death of the invincible mythology around the AB's. That mythology has been a security blanket that is clearly out of place now as the rest of the world has caught up. Heck some of thethem even play like the AB's used to!
When we spend years (decades) exporting our rugby union players to UK, Europe and Japan those teams have to get better at some point.
It is time to get past that old mythology and think about playing smarter. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.
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Forget the bridge - when oil gets to $300 per barrel we'll need something else entirely.
We need to rethink transport and whether anyone really needs to be driving around the city all day every day.
I hestitate to mention it - but France being still in the tournament is probably a good thing and that Australia also got knocked out before us - also seems good, since I spend much time talking to Australians!
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A bit late but I seem to remeber that Hubbard came from nowhere to win last time.
I'd like to think that Alex Sweny has a similar chance this time.
Also voting Hubbard just to stop Banks doesn't seem like the best way to go.
I like Swney's positioning and that he has used his blog and comms well. If you haven't voted yet surprise us and make a vote - bump up the participation rate.
It is time there was someone who has a clue got a chance - I'm picking Swney
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dangerous profile here
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Thanks Hadyn - your stats may be better than others - but I still don't see how comparing teams which never contains the same players really works.
I was also thinking of something John Hart said on Campbell Live about forgetting the world cup history and looking to the future.
I just wonder how many of the players can actually do that very well. Skills do tell tell part of the story but not all.
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I think your stats tell us more about you than they do about any rugby - which is not very much.
Unless you have exactly the sames teams playing in each game you are not comparing apples with apples ever.
This means that the history in the tournament doesn't mean much. All of the smart teams would be holding players in reserve until the bigger games from now on out. You are just having a bit of fun with numbers.
Also -most statisticians knows you cannot average averages and that is what in effect you are doing.
Now if you had the stats for each player and you compared those - you might get a bit closer - but the psychology of a semi or final is different to the warm up games.
Also the fact that x teamm won the last 3 games at a particular venue is also no predictor of the oiutcome. Sometimes the players themselves might be influenced by such things but the reality is that all games are different because you are never comparing the same actual players.
I would say one of the key variables is the extent of injuries to key players and that has a much greater influence on the outcome than anything else.
You haven't even mentioned injuries and you don't know exactly who will be playing in each team so until then your stats are just a diversion.
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Iran - again (sigh) Thanks Bob for the Peter Galbraith link
I did especially like this paragraph
The scale of the American miscalculation is striking. Before the Iraq war began, its neoconservative architects argued that conferring power on Iraq's Shiites would serve to undermine Iran because Iraq's Shiites, controlling the faith's two holiest cities, would, in the words of then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, be "an independent source of authority for the Shia religion emerging in a country that is democratic and pro-Western."
Further, they argued, Iran could never dominate Iraq, because the Iraqi Shiites are Arabs and the Iranian Shiites Persian. It was a theory that, unfortunately, had no connection to reality.
I hesitate to quote a travel book - but in "Backblocks America" - WorldbyBike - Gareth & Jo Morgan - they went through 26 states - specifically lots of redneck areas and back roads to try and understand how those (mostly Republican) voters tick.
The results were scary (oblivious isolation etc.) and as those people are the ones who elected George W - I suspect that much of the cowboy posturing is for their benefit - even though it comes across as being incredibly naive and plain out stupid to many others.
Has the US ever actually got over the Teheran embassy siege? I wonder if this significantly influences their view?
They have never got over the demolition of their embassy in Beruit or the barracks bombing - also in Beruit in about '83 - both of those have been strongly linked to Iran
The reality is that Iran controls Iraq already and the U.S contributed immensely to this by favouring the Shiites - and as Russell notes
They're effectively arming and attacking both sides.
which is totally bizarre - but they probably can't tell the difference
Or to quote Peter Galbraith again
There is also the legacy of February 15, 1991, when President George H.W. Bush called on the Iraqi people to rise up against Saddam Hussein.
Two weeks later, the Shiites in southern Iraq did just that.
When Saddam's Republican Guards moved south to crush the rebellion, President Bush went fishing and no help was given.
Only Iran showed sympathy.Hundreds of thousands died and no Iraqi Shiite I know thinks this failure of US support was anything but intentional.
And then there are KUrds on all sides as well.
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on Iran and Seymour Hersh it would be fair to point out that while he has generally good track record - it is difficult at the best of times to make sense of the Iran puzzle even if you think you have all the pieces. Which they can still misread / and they don't have all the puzzle pieces - see this para from the article
In interviews with current and former officials, there were repeated complaints about the paucity of reliable information. A former high-level C.I.A. official said that the intelligence about who is doing what inside Iran “is so thin that nobody even wants his name on it. This is the problem.”
(page 3)
I'm reminded of ex CIA spy Robert Bauer's Book - See No Evil (Syriana movie was based on it) where he mentions the complexity and connections across borders in Lebanon and elsewhere.
When that book came out in '02 it seems that Bauers main thesis was exactly that the US no longer has quality ground intelligence to make real sense of the situation. An assertion that is repeated in the article.
I also wonder if there is anyone in the US administration who has the hindsight and depth say of Robert McNamara in "The Fog of War" years after the fact to work out much smarter ways to be able to negotiate some kind of resolution.
Hans Blix as quoted on page 5 of the Hersh article also suggests that some options aren't even being considered.
Hans Blix, a former head of the I.A.E.A., questioned the Bush Administration’s commitment to diplomacy. “There are important cards that Washington could play; instead, they have three aircraft carriers sitting in the Persian Gulf,” he said. Speaking of Iran’s role in Iraq, Blix added, “My impression is that the United States has been trying to push up the accusations against Iran as a basis for a possible attack—as an excuse for jumping on them.”
Hersh's article appears to support the view that nothing has been learned.
The war in Iraq is already a proxy war on Iran because of the Shia connections - real and imagined and that is patently not working.
I noticed that Robert Bauer has a new book out - this time - a novel - and Blow the House Down includes some discussion between Seymour Hirsh and Robert Bauer - see brief quote below on the parallels regarding the audio version of that book.
but listeners will undoubtedly find that the most fascinating aspect of this audiobook is Baer's chat with author Seymour Hersh. Two experts of the shadowy intelligence underworld, they discuss the relationship between Baer's characters and real figures, and Baer's stated intention to prod the uninformed reader into learning more about the secret workings of the intelligence world
I don't know what the answer is - but more of the same (Iraq) spread to Iran /Syria and maybe Pakistan is not an outcome that gives much hope.
I can understand why the BDO is easier to deal with!