Posts by Jason Kemp
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
Why the fascination with electorates?
I think it is a relic of the past. I was thinking besides the 15% of special votes there is the 4% of wasted votes that go back into the pool for seat recalculation. I'm sure that is included in the calculations but easy to overlook.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to tussock,
I was just out in New Lynn. Deborah Russell got that but many first gen voters didn't vote for her while they liked Cunliffe. So yes electorate representation is still a thing. I'm in Mt Albert so I split my vote and if I had been in Maungakiekie or another electorate with a Labour electorate potential winner I would have done that.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to dave stewart,
It was great to see Corin Dann suggesting that the 5% threshold should be lowered.
In 2012 that was one of 5 key recommendations “The one electorate seat threshold should be abolished (and if it is, the provision for overhang seats should also be abolished);
The party vote threshold should be lowered from 5% to 4% (with the Commission required by law to review how the 4% threshold is working);”As I understand it both were ignored by the Nats who controlled that committee.
"The one electorate seat threshold should go. An exception to the party vote threshold, it is not a necessary feature of the MMP system." but it was kept because of Act :)
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to Martin Roberts,
Thanks Martin. I don't think they would all go to Labour but significant that an extra 5% in the specials this time around.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to tussock,
I don’t think that the electoral vote is a big deal.
I think it might be in certain seats where there is a list candidate from another party who doesn't need the electorate vote. Not sure how the calculations work in that case but suspect an overhang might be the result. Does anyone know.
In Maungakiekie for example RADHAKRISHNAN, Priyanca could have won if Chloe Swarbrick who is on the Green list had asked voters to give their electorate vote to Labour. Would it have made an overall difference to the total of electorate + party vote - I'm not sure.
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The more I think about it the more 15% of the vote total in specials looks to be the real story of this election. Of course it will take 2 weeks to find out but that is a large block .
It was 300,000 special votes in 2014 and 384,000 this time so having a larger sample size could offer more of a variance.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to Dennis Frank,
So the youthquake came in at 0.9%.
May be much more. Many of those votes were likely to be specials. And with specials at 15% of the vote total there could well be a few surprises.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to Ian Tinkler,
Does appear to be a low voter turn out.
So up by only 1% despite a record early voter turnout. I think we have to be looking hard at why a hard core of 10% (give or take) of the population doesn't vote.
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I watched that Kate Bush doc a while back. Magic stuff. I have some of her directors cut versions from more recent times. She can't hit the high notes but still great.
Wanted to show the teenager what an '80's teen wunderkind could do. In my mind Kate is very much the template for Lorde. Can't really compare pre-internet with now but the radio mics were also part of Bush's innovation. The approach worked and still does.
She was a pioneer of the Fairlight and the whole home studio thing when it cost a lot more.
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Overall election early votes just hit 985,530 so with todays totals to be tallied by 2pm tomorrow advance voting will be well above 1m. 178,785 votes cast is a new daily record.