Posts by Simon Grigg
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...her nomination was the highlight of a convention that ABC News has credited with a 20% shift from Obama to McCain amoung white woman voters.
It doesn't look to be quite that simple:
The ABC News finding that Sarah Palin dramatically upped John McCain's support among white women is one I'm not entirely convinced by, mostly because other polling by the same agency shows Sarah Palin performing worse among women than she does among men. One needs to remember that the margins of error are much higher for subsamples of the data than for the poll as a whole. That's why I generally don't spend a lot of time focusing on the demographics in individual polls. If a poll is breaking out six or eight different demographic groups, and the margins of error on these subsamples are 6 or 8 or 10 or 12 points, then odds are that something is going to be out of alignment merely due to chance alone.
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Well apart from having experience similar to Obama, she was vetted back in May, has governed a state with 15,000 employees and has shown judgement enough to run a victorious election campaign against the wishes of the old guard Alaskan GOP.
Haven't we been over this time and time again..even the guy who vetted her admitted (to CBS I think) that he'd not done the job fully.
And really the left is saying inexperience but so many of the right are also apalled, once you get beyond the rah-rah ewessay ewessay ewessay front:
David Frum (as linked here before):
Ms. Palin's experience in government makes Barack Obama look like George C. Marshall. She served two terms on the city council of Wasilla, Alaska, population 9,000. She served two terms as mayor. In November, 2006, she was elected governor of the state, a job she has held for a little more than 18 months. She has zero foreign policy experience, and no record on national security issues.
The NYPD has 40,000 employees and I'm doubting that the Chief of Police reasonably sees himself as VP material.
When she can win a brutal campaign lasting eighteen months against the toughest political machine in the world to get the nomination, then she has experience. Until then, she's a woman who won an internal fracas in a staunchly, but very very small GOP state.
What does interest me is the polling coming through right now. If you exclude that USA Today poll, which looks like a huge aberration, then the GOP didn't get the convention bounce that the Dems got, or anything close. McCain is statisically even with Obama and expected to fall as the bounce he did get wears off. I expected the GOP to be around the +4 average.
Happily, I'm feeling a tad more positive than I was last night.
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he bought up the mafia connections of I think it was warners who were bought up by a funeral home or some such story.
Steve Ross..Kinney..mafia, carparks and funeral homes. They bought Warner / 7Arts in about 68 and then gobbled up Atlantic and Elektra.
Universal has mob links in it's past too, via MCA and Seagrams (who also have current links to Warner Music).
Lots of reading out there [I'm too lazy to find links but they are all in print I think]..Stiffed is a great book as is Mansion on The Hill, or Walter Yetnikoff's book (former Sony head..try the accounting practices pages)
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oh and simon if you're still there, peter hated the 4 majors as much as you.
hold on Rob...I've never said that and it's a huge misrepresentation. But I'm realistic about what they are and how they work. And much of that is not pretty but it's part of their core business, which is maximising shareholder profit.
And he's right about the YouTube thing..but I'm pretty sure I mentioned it before here.
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Perhaps not, but you have to agree there is a strong correlation.
That there is, but it's hardly an absolute correlation.
[My mum goes to church....but now I think about it, not that often anymore....]
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Well, that's precisely the kind of attitude that is going to throw the election to McCain - who doesn't actually deserve to win it. Then again, I guess if you're already wirtten off everyone who goes to church regularly
I might not agree with the core belief but going to church regularly does not = wacko.
But there are core constituents that both parties will always hold and then there are the folks inbetween who win or lose elections. Right now those folks want a reason to vote one way or another and the fact that Palin banned books and is a confirmed attendant at a nutty church ain't gonna do it. Quite the opposite..it pisses them off that people keep on going on about it and the media get the shit and they sympathise.
Everyone's been going on about this for days and McCain is now ten points ahead....
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And I'm not talking about a difference of opinion, but simple objective fact.
yeah but none of that or the banning of books matter. The folks who are offended or might be influenced by the fact that Palin is an unprepared, rather naive wacko (she is) are already in the Obama camp.
McCain=Bush is the core stuff they need to keep on banging home...it has legs and is a swinging vote winner especially as the Bush economy staggers again and again. Blue collar workers understand that..they really don't care about polar bears or troopers in Alaska..really.
And they really do want / need to win Ohio...
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Lou Dobbs today (after noting that neither campaign's election promises add up):
**Joe Biden**
"In the Senate, John[McCain] has voted with President Bush 95 percent. And that is very hard to believe."
The Democratic vice-presidential candidate is exaggerating McCain's support for the policies of President Bush. According to the Congressional Quarterly, which keeps score, McCain supported the Bush administration on 95 per cent of the votes in 2007. But his loyalty score for the first seven and a half years of the Bush presidency is significantly lower--90 per cent.
However, Bush is on 30% and McCain just hit 48% so that four more years stuff clearly ain't getting through.
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Spoke to friends in Philadelphia in the weekend who are consoling themselves with the theory that most of the polls are conducted on land lines and miss a big chunk of Democrat-leaning, mobile phone toting young voters.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
ewwwesssayyyyy! ewwwesssayyyyy! ewwwesssayyyyy!
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and think for a split second that Michael Palin is running for Veep?
I think I tossed the word Pythonesque at this some threads back. It stands....