Posts by Dismal Soyanz
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Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt, in reply to Simon Grigg,
Although that’s what journo’s are paid for….
How about savvy and/or activist/engaged?
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Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt, in reply to Steve Barnes,
Holmes' article is full of cultural arrogance and a very selective perspective. He and people like Laws play to an audience that is either stupid or willfully ignorant.
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Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt, in reply to Sacha,
At the heart of it all are young people, obviously; students; westernised; secularised.
Other than this sentence early on, I couldn't see anywhere else that Paul Mason justified using the term "westernised".
Seems a tad patronising to me. The implication being that if the young were not westernised, this revolution would not have happened. Ummm.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to BenWilson,
Something for Labour/Green policy makers to think about.
I was particularly disappointed that the CTU saw compulsory super as a threat to NZS. NZS must change - won't be able to afford it in its current form. Personally, I don't see why greater reliance on personal schemes is such an anathema to some people when it is possible to ensure that NZS role as a safety net is not compromised. And before anyone jumps up and down about current or near retirees, changes to super schemes happen overnight only when they are on the brink of collapse.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Sacha,
Yes – Kiwisaver has dome well but my impression was that before its introduction there was a fair degree of ambivalence/opposition. One of the reasons for Kiwisaver’s success amongst the financially literate was the attached subsidies.
The public rejection of compulsory superannuation in 1997, while nearly a decade and a half ago now, I would have thought was fairly strong evidence that NZers oppose compulsory super. We have had opposition to compulsory super from both sides of the (imaginary) political fence since then.
Workers taking up new jobs automatically got enrolled so their take up cannot be considered to be a positive endorsement of Kiwisaver.
I’ve not had the time to look for data on savings behaviour changes since the introduction of Kiwisaver but the key demographic is the upper half of the income table. This is the group who have the income over and above “necessary spending” that will drive any improvement in the savings rate. I have no doubt that savings has picked up but that is also due in part to the recession and the natural tendency for greater caution.
That’s all very bloody well if you actually earn enough. I can’t really blame people on average incomes for being hostile to compulsory savings when New Zealand’s wages are low and our supermarket duopoly keeps raising food prices because they know they can. It’s not as if most people are flush with discretionary income to save at the moment, is it?
And this will always occur when trying to improve our savings behaviour. Of course there are examples when low income actually drives greater dissaving (e.g. when we have finance companies who target low income workers to borrow). Quite possibly some rejigging of tax rates would be necessary to keep disposable income for low income workers constant. It is not an insurmountable problem.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to BenWilson,
Yup. Hence my view that regulating the channel may have some effect but is not a long-term solution. More work needs to be done on decreasing the demand for credit (aka increasing savings) through nudging behaviour. The savings working group has acknowledged that need but the process will require buy in from a significant proportion of the political spectrum. Not holding my breath for that. Plus also some work on getting the public over its knee-jerk hostility (well, that's how I interpret it) toward compulsory and/or incentive-led savings.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to BenWilson,
Here's a wild thought on repatriation: You can't claim a pension if you own property with the debt held offshore. So you have to refinance to Kiwibank.
Unfortunately Kiwibank also borrows offshore.
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Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt, in reply to Russell Brown,
Bill O'Reilly is the embodiment of the race to the bottom.
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Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt, in reply to Alex Coleman,
pressure from Jordan and Yemen to stage manage a less revolutionary handover looking is more urgent
How do you suggest they would be able to pressure a lame duck president?
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Sacha,
I should add though that S&P see the private sector as a big part of the problem but public debt reduction as part of the solution – which is a bit odd but may relate to the local/foreign currency distinction (see below).
what the *rating agencies* think help economies live within their means and grow. Any deviation from the neolib consensus?
Pretty standard commentary from the agencies. Exports good, debt bad.
So we’re not at great risk of a rating downgrade on the strength of our private borrowing.
Further to what I said and more directly addressing your point above, note that S&P said this in Nov 2010:
The negative outlook on the New Zealand foreign currency ratings reflects the possibility of a ratings downgrade if New Zealand’s external position does not improve. Rising public savings will be an important component of such an improvement.
The rating could fall, too, if New Zealand’s current account weakens because of any higher real cross-border funding costs within its banks. On the other hand, the ratings could stabilize at the current levels upon a sharper-than-expected improvement in the external accounts, led by stronger export performance and higher public savings.
So the private sector is a threat to the foreign currency sovereign rating. Which kinda highlights the need to read this stuff carefully. Notice they are talking about the foreign currency debt. Most of our public debt is denominated in NZD. Probably the more accurate thing to say is that the local currency sovereign credit rating is not at risk from private sector debt.