Posts by David Hood
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I would speculate that if the PLP can focus on Boris Johnson, they could actually win the next election- assuming he is PM he will be the person that a) left Europe b) broke all the promises about what would happen about leaving. He is going to be hated by the Leavers for not "really" leaving and the Remains for causing all the damage of leaving. Or he will back out of leaving, alienating the majority of the Tory supporter base, and still getting blamed for all the damage the process has caused.
But I honestly doubt the PLP can focus on Boris. Look to the LibDems maybe coming back from the dead as people look for alternatives.
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If Corbyn's popularity among is fellow MPs keeps increasing linearly at the present rate (based on the two data points of the leadership race and now), in 18 months he will have a majority of MPs supporting him.
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Probably, but what I understand is that the MPs specifically want is both Corbyn out, and for him not to stand in a leadership contest because they think he would win. There seem to have been a number in the Parliamentary Labour Party that have been refighting the leadership campaign for the past 9 months, with past coup attempts called off at the last minutes.
When, at times like the present, the MPs focus is internal to the Parliamentary wing of the party, against the broader party, and ignoring the Tories, there are fundamental questions that have to be asked around "If you would rather the Tories were in power, than your own party with someone you don't like as leader, are you in the party you should be in"
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So Corbyn lost a non-binding no confidence vote among MPs 172 to 40.
Which probably makes him more popular among MPs than in the original Labour leadership election campaign.
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London had a mean Remain vote of 60.9% and a median 61.6%, Islington (i.e. Corbyn area) was 75.22% Remain. about 15% above the region
Yorkshire and The Humber had a mean Remain vote of 41.35% and a median 43.22%, Leeds (i.e. Hilary Benn area) was 50.31% Remain. about 9% above the region
Wales had a mean Remain vote of 46.65% and a median 46.01%, Rhonda (i.e. Chris Bryant area) was 46.30% Remain. a vote typical of the region.
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I don't deny we (an often nebulous) social class in NZ. But it is not a reporting category in primary statistics about every region of the country.
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The number of rejected votes is nowhere near enough to make a difference, being a tiny fraction of a percent.
However, as the percentage of the community voting Remain rises, so does the percentage of rejected votes. So people voting Leave are better at putting a cross in a box. But most of this effect seems to be that people in London both voted strongly to remain and were very bad at putting a cross in a box (London is the upper right). The Scots for example were pro Remain and far more meticulous.
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The Chilcot Report is about to come out. I would speculate that those Blairites keen on a coup regardless of the Brexit outcome (so those pushing the 24th as a date for a while before the campaign and result) would rather Labour was not led by someone happy to call Blair a war criminal in a few weeks.
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As I am familiar with the New Zealand census, I was looking through the British census for variables to look at. One of the reported categories is "social class" which just made me go wut?
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Here are the raw votes for and against by subregion, so to the top left of the diagonal is a nett remain, lower right is the nett leave, and the more toward the upper right the bigger the raw numbers
