Posts by Idiot Savant
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Therefore 51% would definitely mean majority rule. Maori seats would remain?
Not if you're getting rid of electorates entirely. But in a list-only system, you can guarantee maori representation without affecting overall proportionality by using a Maori list.
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Ian: "fringe folk" are as deserving of representation as anyone else. The only defensible threshold is none at all. Pure St Lague works well in a number of European countries, and we should adopt it here. At the least, it would stop this truly vile tactic on the part of the large parties to try and push smaller ones out of parliament, thus stripping the people who voted for them of representation.
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Low or no thresholds are what allowed Hitler into goverment
People keep saying this, but its simply not true. Look at their election performance. The Nazi Party gained 6.5% in its first election in 1924. it was in the doldrums for a few years after that, but it gained 18.3% in the 1930 elections, 37.4% and 33.1% in the 1932 elections, and 43.9% in the 1933 elections which finally saw them assume government.
As for Italy and Israel, I think that is far more a result of political culture than the electoral system. Compare it to the Netherlands, which similarly has no threshold, but doesn't have any rela problem with stable government (when a party quits the cabinet, another one joins, and everything just keeps on going)
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If the situation arose I'd think the Maori party would be well advised to extract what they can from the bigger block for an abstention.
I agree (and the same applies to Peter Dunne, of course). I'd rather not see an overhang significantly affect the outcome.
As for capping Parliament, that moves the system even further away from proportionality. I'd rather we either grew up about it (as the Germans have) and accept that some disproportionality is the price we pay for retaining electorates, or bite the bullet and ditch electorates entirely.
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Oh, and if NZF make it over, its probably curtains for National.
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New Morgan poll. Labour down, greens up seriously, NZF flirting with 5%. Using the MMP calculator gives N 55, ACT 4, UF 1 (=60) / L 41, G 15, JAP 1 (=57), and the Maori Party holding the balance of power no matter how many seats it wins (but only able to make Labour the government if it wins at least 5).
Standard caveats about Morgan polls (overestimate Greens, underestimate National, 2-week polling period) apply.
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It occurred to me that if Labour and the Greens between them have more votes than National and Act (a reasonable possibility, given the TV3 poll, which was the more accurate poll last time around), then the Nat/Act supporter simply can't complain if Labour/Green become the government, given their protracted efforts to characterise the Greens as watermelons.
Not that that will stop them. National seems to believe in plurality rule, not majority rule.
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Given Key's lack of experience in negotiating in an MMP parliament, this could lead to imminent collapse and an early election - with Labour brought back to sort things out.
It wouldn't lead to an election; under current convention, the G-G will not dissolve parliament mid-term if there is a clear alternative government which holds the confidence of the House.
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Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?
Short term, pretty good. Longer term? Not so sure. They're a declining nut-cult, dedicated to a bankrupt ideology, with a shrinking number of adherants. While the thought of Roger Douglas in Parliament thrils them, its not going to win them any more supporters in the long term. Which means that if Rodney ever fails to win Epsom, or decides to pack in parliament for a more enjoyable dance career,they'll be out, and left wailing on the fringes like the social crediters.
I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast, in which case a left coalition is a distinct possibility still.
That's when there will be real anti-MMP tantrums from the Nats.
Yeah - the horror of government actualy having to have a majority. How unfair!
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Will it be a Brasher future?
Vote National, get Rogered?