Posts by Stephen Judd
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Mikaere Curtis,
Step 1 would be for Labour to replace Williams with someone who can frame arguments in a Labour-positive way.
Accepting your general point about Labour and message, I don't think Labour can control who National Radio chooses. Doubt National have been too happy with Hooton bagging Key and senior ministers lately either.
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Handwringer and proud.
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In lieu of "like" button -- what Danielle said.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to BenWilson,
A sudden 50% drop in the value of their entire asset base would just be laughed off
But a 50% drop in house prices is not a 50% drop in banks' asset bases; their asset base is the total outstanding loans secured against those houses. And NZ doesn't let you just walk away if you're underwater, unlike some US states, so those loans won't be impaired that badly.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Katharine Moody,
as the author takes his own stab at ‘guesswork’ conclusions .. for example;
He's just pointing out other plausible explanations. Hence the stress that these are guesses, and the data doesn't itself say these things.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Katharine Moody,
The analogy used doesn’t make sense to me – James Cameron’s Wairarapa farm purchases seem completely irrelevant.
He is simply commenting on the utility of using a Chinese surname as a proxy for non-residency. I quoted the summary of a much longer article which is worth reading.
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Not sure whether this was posted here yet, so just in case: Professor Thomas Lumley's take at StatsChat.
One of the repeated points I make on StatsChat is that you need to distinguish between what you measured and what you wanted to measure. Using ‘Chinese’ as a surrogate for ‘foreign’ will capture many New Zealanders and miss out on many foreigners.
The misclassifications aren’t just unavoidable bad luck, either. If you have a measure of ‘foreign real estate ownership’ that includes my next-door neighbours and excludes James Cameron, you’re doing it wrong, and in a way that has a long and reprehensible political history.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Steve Barnes,
for all those here bagging Twyford take a quick look in the mirror, Labour are NOT the bad guys here.
But that was a pretty predictable way this story would develop, and they went ahead anyway. So they have to cop some blame.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Mark H,
the left has given up on economics but that’s cool.
Well... some of us haven't, but the post 84 consensus has a lock on the discourse. In the course of this discussion, I've started to feel that a possible reason we keep having the OH NOES IDENTITY POLITICS thing blow up is that this is the only area where change feels possible any more; questioning the underpinnings of our current economic arrangements can only be done in the gentlest way before you're considered crazy.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Mark H,
Frankly really frustrating that the left can’t actually attack National on this without it becoming about race.
Sure, it's frustrating. I find I can live with it rather than just bursting into the Herald, myself.