I happened to listen to an interview with Prof Philip Tetlock a couple of weeks ago, in which he talks about the insights arising from a longitudinal study on the accuracy of political forecasts, which the BBC subsequently archived (= removed).

So instead of snappy 8 minutes of Prof Tetlock that the BBC have hidden, here's a much more in depth look at the insights and the many wrinkles that exist gathered from nearly 2 decades studying the accuracy of political forecasts.

I think the distinction between hedgehogs and foxes is an important one to understand and develop.