Hard News: Polls: news you can own
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Hebe, in reply to
'Don't know' in the Colmar poll were not 18%, they were 13% (up 3). There was also 'Refused' at 5% (up 2). Both add up to 18 but they are not the same thing.
You're right thanks -- I went searching and found the breakdown. It's still by far the largest increase of Don't Knows in a month: overall DK has gone from a stable 8%
in May, July, Sept and 9% in Oct, 10% in Feb to 13% in March.
(Refuseds are pretty much 3 to 5% of the total constantly.)An interesting trend.
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I think the safest conclusion about rising Don't Knows, is that we don't know why. Why don't we know? I don't know.
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Hebe, in reply to
I wouldn't like to speculate: there are too many unknowns.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
“A survey in 2012 by Canstar Blue found that a third of Generation Y in New Zealand have abandoned landlines; 14 per cent of Generation X and 8 per cent of Baby Boomers.”
And I'm one of the said GenX/Y 'cord-cutters', in more ways than one.
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It would be interesting to have the Don't Knows analysed. There could be a number of categories like:
Don't Care
Don't Know Anything About Politics
Don't Bother About It Until The Election
Follow Politics But Don't Decide Until Election DayI'm the last of those, I've always had a bit of interest in politics and evaluate the voting options and possible outcomes. The campaign gives you a lot more exposure of politicians and parties to evaluate, and things can change through the campaign, so the final decision is made on election day.
Polls are a useful part of the evaluation. Understanding what polls actually mean and don't mean helps. Understanding that late swings are always on the cards also helps. Remember that no polls are taken on election day, they are snapshots of opinion prior to that so they cannot predict what will happen on election day, just sentiments at some point prior.
I think genuine thinking swing voters are an important part of the voter mix. We annoy the hell out of political activists who can't understand a lack of blind dedication to their own cause. And we may frustrate polsters.
We get called fence sitting wishy washy shallow flip flopping traitors - but we're the ones that decide elections (along with the fence sitting wishy washy shallow flip floppers).
When you see National go from 21% in 2002 to 47% in 2011 it's obvious there's a large number of potential swing voters. And when you see 13% don't knows - don't forget that if people being polled weren't pushed to make a choice the Don't Knows number could be much higher.
Journalists like a few simple facts to build their sensations around. Hence:
"Winston Peters is likely to be kingmaker, according to a ONE News Colmar Brunton poll." The poll has no idea what people will decide on one day in September.3 News "And New Zealand First is on 4.9 percent. It is so close, but leader Winston Peters would not make it back. If he got that little bit extra to 5 percent, it would change everything." That's a current approximately 50/50 chance of NZ First making 5% but no guarantee at all that that would make them a 'kingmaker'.
NZ First can easily swing significantly either way. And there's a high chance of a late swing depending on how things stack up late in the campaign. Peters is practiced at spotting opportunities to get media attention and know the media will lap up his attention seeking, but that's a gamble. The possibility of Labour+Greens+NZ First may scare swing voters off NZ First - or might have them flocking.
And if Peters had a significant health issue it really could change things a lot if not everything.
It depends on a lot of things we don't know about yet - and the 'don't knows' include polsters and journalists.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I wouldn’t like to speculate: there are too many unknowns.
The ones we know about can at least be ringfenced as known unknowns. But this is moving into the territory of unknown unknowns.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
They shoot mad dogs don’t they?
Prebble's back but!
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Meanwhile, the venerable Brian Edwards calls bare-faced bias on Paddy Gower.
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Hebe, in reply to
The ones we know about can at least be ringfenced as known unknowns. But this is moving into the territory of unknown unknowns.
And these are the unknowns that we really need to know more about.
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